'REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMACARE' As a candidate, Trump regularly said he'd replace the Affordable Care Act—with "something much better. ” Of course, dOing SO IS proving, incredibly complicated," as Trump recently put it. NO kidding. The House will spend much 0f March considering the first tranche 0f legisla- tion t0 change the し S. health care system, which has already drawn opposition from conservative House Republicans who believe the approach iS t00 gradual—as well as Democrats, and even some Republicans, wh0 think it's t00 abrupt. A centrist proposal from tWO Senate Republicans— Bill Cassidy 0fLomsiana, a physician, and Susan Collins of Maine—would effectively allow states P A G E 0 N E / T R U M P pose a massive tax bill that will include business and personal taxes, no such reform has made it through Congress since 1986. What's likely t0 happen: Congress will pass a bill that meets the least political resistance—one that cuts business taxes but Offers smaller changes on the personal side, such as creating new tax deductions for child care and health savings accounts. lt's not the tax nirvana Of Republican dreams, but it's likely to be a solid win. 'WASTE LIKE YOU WOULDN'T BELIEVE' programs for the poor have the weakest constitu- ency, so look for cuts t0 Medicaid, the health care program for the indigent that Congress expanded under Obamacare, as well as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, alSO known as fOOd stamps. Trump hasn't unveiled specific cuts, but he's likely to get what he seeks. He could have a harder time with programs that have a wealth- ier constituency, like the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the National Endowment for the Arts, the National Endowment for the Human- itles and Others conservatives have long eyed for ACARE IS LIKELY T t0 keep large portions 0f the ACA, but their bill is t00 moderate for the GOP-controlled House. Obamacare is likely to be picked at but not unwound, leaving what Trump calls a "disaster very much in place. 'REBUILD OUR MILITARY' Throughout the campaign, Trump promised t0 rebuild the "decimated' U. S. military. Never mind that the し S. spends more on defense than the next 11 highest-spending countries OB combined, or that America has overwhelming technological advantages. Still, Trump is likely t0 get a sizable hike in the defense budget. Mil- itary spending is popular in Congress, in part because the defense industry is spread out all over the country. 'WE'RE GOING TO CUT TAXES' If there's one area where Trump has been a traditional Republican, it s cutting taxes. The president has vowed tO cut personal income taxes—which would 0 飛 r the greatest benefits to the wealthiest Americans. He has also vowed tO cut business taxes. Can he succeed? When it comes tO the latter, he has a good chance. Demo- crats and Republicans disagree on specific deduc- tions, but there's been bipartisan agreement that U. S. business tax rates are t00 high and are caus- ing t00 many American companies tO leave their profits overseas.While Trump is planning tO pro- N E W S W E E K 14 M A R C H 17. 2017 BE PICKED AT BUT NOT same ambassador during the campaign. Trump ney General Jeff Sessions s meetings with the Kislyak. The president has also defended Attor- with the Russian ambassador to the U. S. , Sergey rity Adviser Mike Flynn's December discussions He defended Sessions's former National secu- made it clear he doesn't think there's a scandal. ence in the 2016 election. But the president has gress chooses tO investigate 、 IOSCOW S interfer- Trump doesn't have any legal say over how Con- 'RUSSIA FAKE NEWS' Mattis will likely push for preserving it. SO 代 power complements military strength and support the m. The Pentagon brass believe s such including Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, tends tO lnternational Development because the military, gets at the State Department and the Agency for Trump will also have a harder time cutting bud- slashing. Despite his "America first" rhetoric, VE Y MUCH IN PLACE. P CALLS A "DISASTE ' OUND, LEAVING WHA TR

OBAMACARE-LESS: CoIIins and another Republican senator have proposed fix fo 「 the ACA, but it's probably t00 moderate fo 「 the House. is likely t0 stymie an exhaustive inquiry from from his legislative agenda or uncover malfea- Congress or the Department Of Justice, and sance. And while Sessions has recused himself from dealing with the Russian matter, the Jus- despite the pressure on Congress tO establish tice Department is unlikely tO appoint a special a special select investigative committee an prosecutor along the lines 0fKenneth Starrvwh0 ndepende n い一 9 / 1 led the Whitewater crusade against Bill Clinton. can leaders are holding firm. The eventual probe That would be a victory for Trump. is likely t0 be a much more limited inquiry from And on every front, count on the president tO the intelligence committees in bOth houses. hateve r he ℃ an t0 win:As heÅan&Schwartz) That benefitsnrump because such a hearin writes in The Art ビ Deal: "I play t0 people's would be largely secret and spare the president fantasies. 冏 little hyperbole never hurts. ”ロ a lengthy public examination that might distract NEWSWEEK 15 MARCH 17 , 2017