when an exerclse is planned—something that has unsettled its NATO neighbors up north. One ofthose countries, Denmark, has, like Rus- sia, claimed the North POle sea bottom under t e Law 0 e ea treaty. Cana a, W IC IS also in NATO, will file a claim by 2018 , which is expected tO include the North POle t00. If that happens, it is possible that all three countries will be able to prove the area is an extension of their continental shelves. The treaty, formally The し S. , however, is poorly prepared t0 react tO any sort Of challenge or emergency—and it's known as the Third United Nations Conven- tion on the Law of the Sea, calls for the owners still uncle ar how the Trump administratlon will change America's Arctic policy.Washington has Of legitimate overlapping claims tO work out boundaries among themselves. only two icebreakers, both old, and only one can break through heavy ice. The country has no Which is perhaps one reason why Russian military planners have identified the Arctic as a concrete plans tO build more. We need Arctic likely place for future wars. "The Russian polit- ports, says the State Department s top Arctic ical and military leadership has systematically diplomat, David Balton. We re not prepared argued that there will be an acute shortage 0f in terms 0f 0il spill response or pollution. ln the energy resources worldwide, which may lead event 0f a shipping mishap, we have very little t0 conflict, and that the West, led by the United search and rescue assets nearby. states, may attempt tO seize Russia's Oil and gas, The し S. is also the only Arctic nation that hasn't ratified the Law Ofthe Sea treaty. lt has no says Katarzyna Zysk, an associate professor at the Norwegian Defence University C011ege who representatlves on the scientific commlttee ana- specializes in Russian defense policy. lyzing claims and no way tO make its own, even But not everyone believes a clash is inevitable. though, under treaty rules, the し S. could possi- bly enlarge its undersea territory 0 the coast Of Amencan and European diplomats routinely Alaska by an area about the size 0fCalifornia. assure reporters that Russia and the Other Arc- If the treaty process were a baseball game, t1C natlons—the し S. , Canada, Norway, Sweden, "the し S. wouldn't be on the field, in the stands, Finland, Denmark and lceland— continue to even in the parking lot, ” coast Guard Rear cooperate in the High North, especially on ship- pmg and search and rescue efforts, despite ten- sions elsewhere. They also proudly point t0 an agreement signed in 2010 by Norway and Russia "WE ASSURE YOU, THERE that peacefully resolved a maritime Arctic bor- der dispute in the Barents Sea. IS OIL THERE. AND THE Security, however, may be a different matter OIL IS RECOVERABLE. ” as the region opens. B0b0 LO, an independent Arctic expert and the author Of 犬 4 4 れ d ビ ⅣルⅣ催 D な 0 , is cynical. "Once the Arc- tic becomes high profile, you'll have friendship Admiral Gene Brooks told me in 2010. Seven bre ak down. years later, there has been little progress toward If that happens, the Kremlin is far better ratifying the tre aty, de spite supp ort from both prepared for outright conflict or plain 01d com- petition. Moscow not only has more than 40 the Obama and George 、 A7. Bush administra- icebreakers; it s in the middle 0f the largest tions, the Navy, envlronmental groups, shippers Arctic military push since the C01d War. Russia and oilcompanies. A small group ofRepublicans keep blocking it in the Senate because they don't has more Arctic bases than any country and is building more, including 13 new airfields and 10 want tO participate in any international agree- Arctic-based air defense radar stations sched- ment they believe will give foreign bodies power ule d to b e ⅲ operatio this ye ar over American policy The irony is that the curre nt lack 0 f し S. atten- Russia has alSO formed a new brigade, trained tion t0 the rapidly changing Arctic will provide in Arctic warfare, and is constructing 16 deep- foreign competitors with just that, by default. ロ water ports and 13 airfields in the region. The way LO sees 1tÄheRussian response 0NATO BOB REISS is the author of The Eskimo and the 0 〃 Man war games is You think you can frighten us, and, under the pseudonym Of 」 ames AbeI, the novel buster? We can always escalate. Vector, due out this summer. P A G E 0 N E / A R C T I C 21 MARCH 17 , 2017 N E W S W E E K