- ィを第三一 十 SMOKE ON THE WATER: A North Korean missile launch from 2016- Pyongyang's aggressive testing has alarmed the Trump administration. Of his own: tO complete an invasion Of South Korea W1thin a week using asymmetnc capabilities (including nuclear weapons and missiles). Reunification Of the two Koreas under Pyongyang s rule, as ludicrous as that possibility seems tO the outside world, has always been the foremost goal ofboth Kim and his father. For a while, in the wake ofthe famine in the late 1990S that killed tens ofthousands 0f North Koreans and the deep, relentless poverty that followed, military strat- egists began t0 discount that possibility, believing it t0 be rhetoric unmoored from reality. AII you had t0 d0 was look at the satellite images 0f Seoul and Pyongyang at night, one brightly lit and the other dark, t0 see which half 0f Korea was strong and WhiCh was weak. And although the economic disparity hasn't changed much, the North's weaponry has, its war plan has, and its dictator's bellicose rhetoric has. The young man known in china as "Fatty Kim the Third" (Kim Jong Un is the randson Of Kim Ⅱ Sung wh0 was the su reme leader of the Democratic People's RepubIic of Korea (DPRK) from its founding in 1948 until 1994 ) appears t0 be seri- about leading a nuclear power. ln speechesy he men- tlons the reunification far more Often than his father did, North Korea watchers say. lfthe U. S. launches a pre-emp- tive strike, Kim appears likely tO hit back, starting with an artillery b arrage—thous and s 0f rounds pewhour ・一・・ー-ーー。一ー。ー一ー~ーー一 Without movlng a single soldier in its million-man rmy,%aysformer CIA analyst BruceKlingner, now at the For the past two years, the U. S. and South Korea have been practicing pre-emption exerclses. ln 2015 , they adopted a new war plan, OPLAN 5015 , that includes attacks on the North's nuclear and missile facilities, as well as decapitation attacks" against Kim Jong Un and the rest Of the North Korean le adership. South Korea also developed its own pre-emptive attack plans and has acquired, U. S. and Korean offcials say, weapons capable Of destroying some 0f North Korea's weapons Of mass destruction. ln addition, Seoul has built an elaborate defense system, which includes the recent delivery of the U. S. terminal high altitude area defense system, which shOOts down incoming missiles in the final phase oftheir descent. The U. S. does not want to have to pre-empt, ofcourse. As Trump s national security adviser, H. R. McMaster, said on t0 dissuade the North from deploying nukes on long-range missiles. "NO one is lOOking for a fight here, ” insists another ¯Trump adviserøwhowasnotauthoriz ed to spe ak about this matter on the record. Whether it does will come down tO how Kim reacts tO the pressure now being put on him by the West. The し S. knows relatively littleabouttheyoungnan s psyche and stability, but what it does know lsn't encouraging. ln addition tO his ggressivemissiletestingprogramsl<imhasanewwarpl 37 N E W S W E E K M A Y 0 5 . 2 017

HOLDING THEIR BREATH: An anti-terrorism drill in SeouI. Many believe the South Korean capital would get hit hard in a war between the し S. and Pyongyang. even though McMaster said every option "short Of war' was being considered, he also said a nuclear-capable North Korea is unacceptable [and] so the president has asked us t0 be prepared t0 give him a full range ofoptions t0 remove that threat tO the American people and tO our allies and partners in the region. ' HiS use Ofthe word 襯 0 リ seemed t0 imply a use offorce and made the governments in Seoul, T0kyo and Beijing nervous. Has Trump drawn a red line tO use all means necessary tO prevent North Korea from completing its intercontinental ballistic miSSile program? Or iS he dOing a "madman across the water ” bluff in order tO spook North Korea and instill some panic in the Chinese, hoping tO prod the latter intO using their economic leverage ( 85 percent Of North Korea s external trade is with China) tO rein in Kim? Former CIA analyst Klingner notes that, given the rapid ace@NortWKoreak2016tesEprogranvandthere tendency tO test a new president early, it might not be long before Trump gets reports of another North Korean long- issileornuclear te steThis is when thingycould ge very perilous. Another missile test does not constitute a crisis Of the sort that should trigger another Korean War. lt would, if anything, give the U. S. more leverage with China Pyongyango Yet all the chatter about pre-emption—some Of which has also N E W S W E E K 39 M A Y 0 5 , 2 017 lSSue itS own threats about pre-emption. ln a recent report widely read in the Pentagon and intel- ligence community, Klingner argued that the talk about pre-emptlon, and declarations that all options are on the table, needs to stop. "Advocacy of pre-emption both by North Korea and by the U. S. and its allies is destabilizing, he wrote, and could lead tO greater potential for either side tO miscalculate. Pyongyang may not realize that the more it demonstrates and threatens tO use 1tS nuclear prowess, the more likely allied action becomes during a crisis. Each side could misinterpret the other's intentions, thus fueling tension, intensifying a perceived need tO escalate, and raising the risk Of miscalculation, including pre-emptive attack, ” Klingner continued. "Even a tactical military incident on the Korean Peninsula always has the potential for escalating tO a strategic clash.With no appar- ent off-ramp on the highway t0 a crisis, the danger 0f a military clash on the Korean Peninsula is again rising. at iS where we are no 、 V. AS an alternatlve tO makin threats, several current and former diplomats, intelligence analysts and military offcers say, reducing tenslons now quire adyvquieedeploymentofadd itionaLmi ・ - tary har ware tO the reglon, as wel as a behind-the-scenes application 0f Chinese diplomatic muscle from what many analysts believe t0 be an increasingly exasperated BeiJing. ー Thoseare the thingsthaemaymget Kim Jong Un's head straight. One miscalculation away from the next Korean ar is way t00 close tO foranyones comfort. ロ

HE BATTERIES OF North Korean artillery lie on just the other side Of the divided peninsula's demilitarized zone. There are thou- sands Of them—some hidden, Others out in the open. ArtiIlery shells are stored in an elaborate network 0f tun- nels; and though much 0f the weaponry and ammunition is old, し S. forces stationed in South Korea have no doubt they would be effective. Less than 40 miles to the south is the sprawling city 0f Seoul, the capital Of South Korea, with a metropolitan area Of 24 million inhabitants. Ever smce a cease-fire ended hostilities between North and South Korea in 1953 , the res- idents of Seoul have lived with the knowledge that a war with their brethren in the north could break out again; it iS a notion not Often acknowl- edged but embedded in their DNA. And now, again, the fraught Korean Penin- sula seems a single miscalculation away from calamity. Since his election, President Donald Trump and his foreign policy team have esca- lated their rhetoric about the North, insisting that U. S. patlence with North Korea's nuclear and missile program has run out. Pyong- △ yang has responded W1th rhetoric even more bellicose than usual. On April 20 , a state-owned newspaper threatened that Pyongyang would deliver a super-mighty pre-emptive strike ” against the U. S. , whose forces were in the midst Of masslve military exerclses with their South Korean ally. No one Seoul is heading for the bomb shelters yet. Prag- matism, and an abiding assumption that nothing terribly bad will actually happen, prevails. "NO matter how much ten- SIOns mcrease, we Just go about our lives," says park Chung Hee, a 40-year-01d businessman whose grandfather was killed in the Korean War. "What else can we do But everyone living on the peninsula knows that those North Korean artillery battenes are there to pummel Seoul if another war breaks out. And that ifit does, Seoul will get hit, and hit hard. The amount of time from the instant a shell is fired t0 mpact ⅲ the South Korean capital?Just 45 seconds. U. S. alarm about North Korea has spiked for two main reasons. The first is the aggresslve missile-testing reglmen N E W S W E E K 36 pyongyang has carried out under Kim Jong l-Jn. During his four-year reign, pyongyang has already test-fired 66 mis- siles, more than twice as many as his father, Kim Jong ll, did during his 17 years in 0 伍 ce. Kim's regime has gradu- ally increased the range Ofits missiles. Combine that with North Korea's efforts tO miniatunze itS nuclear arsenal SO that its 10 tO 16 bombs can fit ontO a warhead, and you have tWO streams coming together—range and miniatur- lzatlon—that you don't want tO cross, says retired Admi- ral James Stavridis, now dean 0f the FIetcher Sch001 of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Some U. S. commanders fear the North can already put a nuclear warhead on a missile. Admiral Bill Gortney, head 0f the North American Aerospace Command, told Congress tWO years ago that he believes pyongyang can use a medi- um-range missile tO deliver a nuclear payload, me aning it can hit South Korea or Japan. The consensus intelligence estimate is that the North is now 18 tO 36 months away from sticking a nuke on a missile that can reach LOS Angeles. AII that explains why, from both current and former mil- itary offcials, there has been increasing talk 0f pre-emp- tion. ln November 2016 , GeneraI Walter Sharp, former commander Of し S. Forces Korea, said that ifNorth Korea puts a long-range missile on a launch pad and the U. S. is unsure 0fits payload,Washington should order a pre-emp- tive attack tO destroy that missile. But the grim reality is that a pre-emptive strike, agalnst North Korean missiles or nuclear facilities—or both— could well mean war. Should the day come when Trump The estimate is that the North is 18 to 36 months away from sticking a nuke on a missile that can reach LOS Angeles. believes he needs tO order a pre-emptlve strike against targets in North Korea tO eliminate a direct threat, the し S will not be able to take out all ofthe North Korean artillery front-loaded near the border. NOt," says former National S e curity Council staffer Vic- tor Cha, "without using tactical nuclear weapons," which is not something the U. S. would consider, given that Seoul is right down the road. A U. S. strike, simply put, could well trigger the second Korean War. WHAT WOULD another armed conflict on the peninsula lOOk like? During the Korean War, which lasted from 1950 t01953 , some 2.7 million Koreans died, along with 33 , 000 Americans and 800 , 000 Chinese. ln any pre-emption scenano now, the し S. would try to keep the strike limited to the task at hand; at the same time, Washington would signal ⅲ any way it could—probably via the North's ally in Beijing—that it did not seek a wider war. M AY 0 5 , 2 017

against DPRK artillery, aerial bombardments and in an urban warfare environment polluted by 5 , 000 metric tons of DPRK chemical agents. Even if that artillery barrage and push int0 the South gave the North the initiative, there is no question, military planners all say, wh0 would ultimately prevail in a second Korean War. The U. S. and South Korea have far t00 much firepower, and if Kim decided to go to war, that would be the end Ofhis reglme, whether he knows it or not. Heritage Foundation, "the North could launch a devastat- ing attack on Seoul. WouId the two sides be able to de-escalate at that point? A senior North Korean military defector has said that under Kim s new war plan, the North intends tO try t0 occupy all 0f South Korea before significant し S. rein- forcements could flow in from Japan and elsewhere. This lnvaslon could start, Cha wrote in his recent bOOk, T ん ー襯 2 わ S , by terrorizing the South Korean popula- tion with chemical weapons. An arsenal Of 600 chemically armed Scud missiles would be fired on all South Korean airports, train stations and manne ports, making it 11 POS - Sible for civilians tO escape. The North's arsenal of medium-range mis- siles could also be fitted with chemical war- heads and launched at Japan, delaying the flow of U. S. reinforcements. And those reln- forcements would be urgently needed on the Korean Peninsula, since the し S. has only 28 , 000 troops ln south Korea, and the South's armed forces, though far better trained and eqmpped than the North's, consist 0f 660 , 000 men, more than 300 , 000 smaller than the North's. U. S. war planners believe North Korean forces would tO try tO overrun South Korea's defenses and get tO Seoul before the U. S. and the South could respond with over- whelming force. As Cha says, As wars go, this would be the most unforgiving battle conditions that can be imag- ined—an extremely high density of enemy and allied forces—over 2 million mechanized forces all converg- ing on a tOtal battlespace the equivalent Of the distance between Washington, D. C. , and BOSton. The United States would immediately dispatch four to Six ground combat divisions Of up tO 20 , 000 troops each, 10 Air Force wmgs Of about 20 fighters per unit and four tO five aircraft carrlers. ln Cha's scenario, し S. and South Korean "soldiers would be fighting with little defense "Without movin a single SOldier in itS mhlon-man army, the North could launch a devastating attack on SeouI." 0 But this would not be a one-week walkover, like the first Gulf War against Saddam Hussein, when his forces were arrayed like clay pigeons in the lraqi and Kuwaiti deserts, where they were easily destroyed by し S. air power. Con- ventional thinking in the Pentagon is that it would be a four- tO six-month conflict with high-intensity combat and many dead. ln 1994 , when President Bill Clinton contem- plated the use of force to knock out the North's nuclear weapons program, the then-commander 0fU. S. -Republic of Korea forces, Gary Luck, told his commander in chief that a war on the peninsula would likely result in 1 million dead and nearly $ 1 trillion ofeconomic damage ・ The carnage would conceivably be worse no 、 glven that the U. S. believes Pyongyang has 10 t0 16 nuclear weapons. If the North could figure out a way t0 deliver one, why wouldn't Kim go all in? HAS THE messagmg SO far fror れ the Trump administra- tion regarding North Korea made war more or less likely? Trump was sobered by the Obama administration s coun- sel that things with North Korea were becoming more dangerous. He initiated a comprehensive policy review shortly after taking offce, which led to press reports that all options ” were on the table (including use 0f force) in dealing with North Korea. T00 much may have been made ofthat, given that, in any formal review, all aspects 0fP01- ICY are scrutinized. When President-elect Trump was told North Korea had claimed it had reached the "final stage 0f preparations tO test-launch an intercontinental ballistic missile, ” he tweeted, "lt won't happen. " Kellyanne Conway, counselor tO the president, explained that Trump had sent a "clear warning tO North Korea and put Pyongyang on notice. She added that "the president of the United States will stand between them and missile capabilities. Shortly after taking offce, Secretary of State Rex Tiller- son said the era of"strategic patience"—the Obama admin- istration phrase for its policy—with the North was over. And 十 TOP GUN: Vice President Mike Pence looks out at North Korea 行 om an observation post. Many say a pre-emptive strike by the U. S. could lead tO a war that would kill a million people. 38 N E W 5 W E E K M AY 0 5.2 017

Newsweek ー N T E R N A T ー 0 N A L GLOBAL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Matt McAllester EXECUTIVE EDITOR BOb Roe FOREIGN EDITOR CIaudia Parsons MANAGING EDITOR Kenneth Li OPINION EDITOR Nich01as Wapshott INTERNATIONAL E 引 ON EDITORIAL EXECUTIVE EDITOR CULTURE EDITOR ASSOCIATE EDITOR CONTR 旧 UTING EDITORS Max Fraser Matthew Sweet R. M. Schneiderman NichoIas Loffredo Teri Wagner Flynn NEWS EDITOR SENIOR EDITOR SOCIAL MEDIA PRODUCER VIDEO PRODUCER P ℃ TURE EDITOR REPORTERS Anthony Cuthbertson Conor Gaffey Josh Lowe Tom Roddy Damien Sharkov TRAVEL EDITOR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENTS Naina BajekaI lsabel Lloyd Eliza Gray Owen Matthews Matt Cooper CheIsea Hassler Joanna Brenner J0hn Seeley Graham Smith Siobhån Morrin Valeriia Voshchevska Jordan SaviIIe Michael Radford Tufayel Ahmed Teddy CutIer Mirren Gidda Jack Moore Eleanor Ross Graham B oynton NichoIas Foulkes Adam LeBor CONTR 旧 UTING WRITERS Ryan Bort Nina Burleigh Emily Cadei Janine Di Kurt Eichenwald Jessica Firger Michele Gorman AbigailJones Max Kutner Douglas Main Leah McGrath Goodman Alexander Nazaryan Bill Powell Josh Saul Roberto Saviano Zach Schonfeld Jeff Stein J0hn WaIters Lucy Westcott StavZiv PUBLISHED BY Newsweek LTD, ADIVISION OF IBT Media Group LTD CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFF ℃ ER Dev Pragad PRESIDENT AIan press CHIEFOPERATING OFF ℃ ER Gregory Witham GENERAL MANAGER Dave Martin GENERALCOUNSEL ROSie McKimmie CHIEF FINANCIALOFF ℃ ER Amit Shah CHIEF MARKETING OFF ℃ ER James Karklins DIRECTOR OFCOMMUN ℃ ATIONS Mark Lappin HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGER Rob Turner ADVERTISING COMMERCIALDIRECTOR Jeremy Makin SENIOR SALES DIRECTOR Chantal Mamboury DIRECTORS, 旧 TAILORED Pamela Ferrari, Richard Remington GROUPADVERTISING DIRECTOR Una Reynolds SALES MANAGER Chris Maundrell MARKETING + CIRCULATION SUBSCRIPTION MARKETING MANAGER Tom Nichols HEAD OFSUBSCRIPTION OPERATIONS Samantha Rhodes NEWSSTAND MANAGER Kim Sermon

9 鷓 THE SUN HAD barely risen, and Khairy Masoud the city ofTulkarem, 仕 om lsrael. As he hurried t0 was already in trouble. lt was a cold morning in the chaotic parking 10t for a ride t0 work, he says February, and Masoud, a day laborer and father a tissue Ⅱ from his pocket. Suddenly, an armed BY lsraeli guard shouted at him in Russian-accented ofeight, had Just passed through a military check- MIRIAM BERGER point separating his home in the West Bank, near Hebrew and confiscated his most important 当 @MiriamABerger NEWSWEEK 30 MAY05 , 2017

University and then spent time at Benetton s renowned research center, Fabrica. He now works out of Vicenza, halfway between Verona and Venice. His studiO has no permanent staff, as he prefers tO collaborate with freelancers. "I only work with people I like on things that make me happy," he says. cibic's cheery, playful style is helping him to thrive right now. After the global financial crash in 2008 , international design focused on the func- tional: austere, material-driven design ⅲ marble, stone and wood—a ScandinaV1an-inspired, pared- back ae sthetic. Though that look is still popular, it has started tO give way to a revival of pattern and COIO ら more Of lndia and MeX1co; these pieces add t0 a space, rather than disap- peanng into it. Cibic has already become a part 0f that, with the lndian-inspired and crafted work he has done ⅲ his collaboration with Ashish B aj oria, Scarlet Splendour's co-owner. ln his debut collection for Scarlet Splendour, "Vanilla Noir" ( 2015 ) , Cibic produced black and off-white patterned furniture—a table, a sickle- shaped seat, a series Of mirrors—that married a "I ONLY WORK WITH PEOPLE I LIKE ON THINGS THAT MAKE was looking at my nose, he'd been looking some- to the left. AII the time l'd thought Matteo Cibic I style it with a fringe that stands up and leans ordinary, but my hair is thick and cut en brosse; pointing upward and t0 the left. My nose is rather two handles sat a fat-bellied, elongated cylinder, On top 0f a traditional, bowl-shaped base with second one—or at least a rough, unglazed cast. ten about the broken "Max ” vase. But here was a from him in the mail. By then, l'd totally forgot- few days after our meeting, I received a package I am sure of—Cibic specializes ln surprises. A That may or may not be true, but one thing himself, something that no one has seen before. from Calcutta, He is creating a new genre for Bajoria t0 him. As the former tells me by phone deco and pop art. This originality is what drew eliding elements ofRenaissance architecture, art distinctly lndian 100k with Western references, ME HAPPY," HE SAYS. where much more unexpected. ロ PERSONAL FAVORITES From ceramics tO furniture, Cibic's po fO ⅱ 0 is never short Of personality. Here are three particularly characterful examples to seek out. Dodo/Dudu Carafes TWO squat, birdlike waterjugs that are typicalof the much Of Cibic's output. From 0108 ( $ 116 ) each The Count Cabinet Cibic references bothlndian and ltaliancultureinatall cabinet influenced by cathedral architecture from the 1930S. も 17 , 200 ( $ 18.400 ) CARLETSPLENDOU R. C 0 M VasoNaso Vases The 2016 edition ofthis series Of colorful, one -0 幵 vases iS SO 旧 out. but some more will be on sale through Cibic's studio shortly. POA MATTEOC 旧 ICSTUDIO.COM NEWSWEEK 59 MAY 05 , 2017

BIG SI-I()TS USA ー 00 Da Washington, D. C. ー President Donald Trump poses for a portrait in the Oval Offce onApril 21. ln the days before April 29 , which marks the 100th day of hiS administration, Trump posted a tweet complaining that it was unfair tO grade him on such a short periOd in Offce, even though he vowed on the campaign trail tO complete at least 60 ofhis policy proposals during his first 100 days. Supporters call the appointment Of Supre me CourtJus- tice Neil Gorsuch and the dismantling ofa swath ofObama-era regulations successes, while the debacle over a health care bill was a notable failure. ANDREW HARNIK

2016 video, he vowed revenge against the し S. for the assassination of his father. ln January, the State Department offcially named him a specially designated global terrorist" and announced sanctions designed t0 isolate him economically and geographically. For decades,Washington put up with lslam- abad's protection of Al-Qaeda, the bin Lad- ens and the Afghan Taliban (which the ISI sees as a bulwark against lndian influence Afghanistan) because it viewed Pakistan as an ally, however inconsistent, in the U. S. global war on terrorism. But lslamabad's coddling Of Al-Qaeda, its unrestrained production of nuclear weapons and itS continuing attacks on U.S. -friendly lndia with ISI-backed militant groups has frayed its ties t0 Washington, espe- cially with the Trump administration. ln her attention-grabbing February article for the conservative Hudson lnstitute, co-authored with Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambas- sador tO the し S. , Curtis argued that it was time tO 'avoid viewing and portraylng Pakistan as an ally. The new し S. administration should recog- nize that Pakistan is not an American ally. ' Now, Curtis is the top White House offcial responsible for Pakistan, as well as lndia. lslamabad can no longer be allowed to play a "double game ' ' with Washington, shielding anti- U. S. terronsts with one hand while accepting bil- lions in ald with the other and enj oymg the status 0f a quasi- offcial ally, she and Haqqani wrote. For t00 long, the U. S. has given Pakistan a pass on its support for some terronst groups based in Pakistan, including those use d agamst lndia, they wrote. "The U. S. should no longer settle for ASSASSINATION COMPLEX: Pakistani soldiers on a moun- tain in the ShawaI VaIIey border area near Afghanistan. The Obama admin- istration nearly killed a ト Zawahiri with a drone strike in the area in 」 anu- ary 2016. ー - 第、廴を、、・イを→い ~ をィゞ第 NEWSWEEK 16 MAY05. 2017

pakistan s excuses for delaymg a full-throttle crackdown on these terrorist groups and should instead hOld Pakistan accountable for the activ- ities Of all terrorist groups on lts SO ⅱ . The administration has yet tO announce its new posture toward lslamabad, but a likely first step will be further cuts in direct U. S. military assistance, which peaked at $ 1.6 billion in 2011 , unless Pakistan changes its ways. ln 2013 , the Obama administration "withheld $ 300 million military reimbursements for pakistan because Of its failure tO crack down on the Haqqani net- work, ” which is responsible for killing hun- dreds Of Americans in Afghanistan, Curtis and Haqqani wrote, but Washington shouldn't hes- itate t0 apply the whip further. If lslamabad's political leaders cannot, or refuse tO, bring the ISI under control and turn over al-Zawahiri, Hamza bin Laden and Other militant figures, Washington could go nuclear on Pakistan—dip- lomatically speaking—by declaring it a state sponsor ofterrorism. ln March, Republican U. S. Representative Ted Poe Of Texas reintroduced his bill to do just that. There's no Slgn Of changes in Pakistan s behavior, says Riedel. lslamabad's posture on al-Zawahiri remams as it was on Osama bin Laden: "'we don't know him, he's never been here, and we'll never let him back in,' or some- thing like that. Their 0ffcial position up until May 2011 was Osama bin Laden has neverbeen in pakistan, and moreover he'S dead. Under the influence Of Curtis, and with SO many ex-generals populating the administra- tion, Trump is likely tO tell pakistan that "we re not going tO tolerate safe havens' and that means we'll be prepared t0 attack them with unilateral means,' Riedel says. The number 0f drone strikes has steadily dropped in recent years, from 25 in 2014 , tO 13 in 2015 , tO three last year, according tO the London-based Bureau Of lnvestigative Journalism. S01 れ e critiCS argue the strikes have done little permanent damage to Al-Qaeda and other militant groups while producing civilian casualties that mainly fuel hatred for the United States. Michael Hayden, wh0 quarterbacked the strikes as CIA director hink r01T2006- t0 ー 2009,sharplYdis agree it's fair t0 say that the targeted killing program has been the most precise and effective appli- ati0i10f firepower in the history Of armed con flict," he wrote last year. Something better work against Al-Qaeda, because it remams a potent force with the ambi- ioman&capabilitytclaunch another spectacu- lar attack against the United States' says Riedel thewsources ℃ onsultedbYNewsweekERie d points t0 a 2014 p10t by Al-Qaeda t0 place sympa- thizers on a Pakistani frigate, hijack it and use it tO attack Amencan naval ships in the lndian Ocean , or maybe lndian ships, or maybe b0th. " lmagine ifa Pakistani fngate packed with explosives—or a nucle ar device—"sank an Amencan aircraft car- rier," he says. "That would change world history. Perhaps al-Zawahiri and Hamza bin Laden aren t thinking that big, but the 2014 plot, eventually dis- rupted by paklstani security, showe d "their aspi- ratlon was enormous. "The intention Of the operation was much more than blowing up a train or running people over with a Mack truck or something," Riedel says. "This was intended t0 have geopolitical consequences, much like September 11 had geo- political consequences. " According tO a Western diplomat interviewed by Ⅳルた , wh0 asked for "THE NEW U. S. ADMINISTRATION SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT PAKISTAN IS NOT AN AMERICAN ALIX ” anonymity in exchange for discussmg sensitive information, Al-Qaeda alSO remams interested a carrymg out attacks tO airlines. Al-Zawahiri has been "surprisingly quuet about Trump, ” R1edel says. And he vows he will never be captured alive, says the lslamist militant whO talked with him months ago in the tribal areas. He's in some large Pakistani city now, protected by the ISI, with a "desperate last wish," says his militant friend, for one last big attack against America "before foldinghis eyes. ー How Trump will get Pakistan t0 turn on al-Za- wahiri is anyone s guess—and may never happen. The white House did not respond tO a request for comment. But with Curtis moving from thefthin tanks to the white House, the price lslamabad pays for harboring him will undoubtedl rise. ロ P A G E 0 N E / A L - 0 A E D A N E W S W E E K 17 M A Y 0 5 , 2 017