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1. Newsweek 1981年1月5日号

Maggie Steber—Sipa-BIack Star 0 「 ban po ・杙 y in Haiti: す h ・ WO Bank and 彙 h ・ IMF bOth promised tO be mo 「・ 90 れ・′ 0 5 with す h ⅳ WorId ー oa れ 5 must provide long-term loans with less ngorous conditions tO give countries more time tO adjust. Commercial bankers have become much more involved With the more dynamic Third World countries, such as Brazil and South Korea, since they began lending them large sums in the early 1970S. Now, however, they are more apprehensive about their credit-worthiness in the face 0f higher 0 ⅱ prices. ln 1980 , they began looking t0 the IMF as either their guarantor or their debt-collector. Western bankers were ambivalent about clos- er links with the offlcial institutions, and some Of them feared that if they got guarantees they would also get interference. One banker commented: "Our policy is 'help, but hands 0 . The chief advocate of closer links with the IMF was (). W. ) Tom CIausen, president of the Bank of America. And in October, Clausen was nominated tO succeed McNamara as president Of the World Bank. One ofthe ma 」 or issues facing Clausen will be the determination Of the wealthy oil-producing states tO increase their voting power in both the World Bank and the IMF before they take a more active part in Third World development. TO that end, the Arab countries devoted much Of their attention during the year tO beefing up their presence in the tWO institutions. y the end 0f the year, the North-South deadlock, if not broken, was at least more confused. 市ⅱ e the ideologues of free enterpnse, such as Thatcher or Milton Friedman, insisted on the sanctity Of the international capital market, many bankers were not sure hOW sanctified they wished it tO be. Third ′ orld militants still insisted on drastic restructuring to achieve their "new international economic order, " but many Of them looked t0 Western investment and bank loans for help. StiII, the Third WorId's prospects for the 1980S remain full of uncertainty. The extension of both lending and aid depends NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 1981 critically on East-West relations and the cost Of the arms race. ln cynical terms, greater arms spending by bOth sides could stim- ulate economic activity and push up the pnce Of some Third WorId commodities—perhaps providing a new boom for several countnes, particularly in Latin America. But it would cut back the surplus funds available for international lending and aid not linked to military 0bj ectives, causing new hardships for Third WorId countries that produce purely peaceful commodities, or simply struggle t0 survive. any Third WorId leaders enter 1981 with renewed fears in the political arena as well. They worry that preoc- cupation with the Communist threat and the rhetoric of a new confrontation could lead the West back to crude cold- war simplifications, particularly the assumption that the whOle world must be classified as either pro-Communist or anti.Com/ munist. Past turnabouts in Asia and Africa, they note, have shown the dangers Ofthis assumption. Many newly independent countnes once lOOked tO the SOViet Union tO provide arms for their wars of liberation, only t0 become disillusioned by the inability of the Soviets tO provide the peaceful equipment they desperately needed later for development. Even among those Third World states which apparently had been moving closer tO Moscow, the SOViet invasion Of Afghanistan provoked protests and concern. The I ran-lraq war also has raised senous questions about which side is the least unfriendly tO Western interests. The events 0f 1980 showed the danger 0f generalizing about the line-up between the Third World and the Soviet Union. ln the months ahead, the challenge for both the West and the Third World will be to resume their dialogue with a heightened sense 0f urgency fostered during the last dangerous year. NEWSWEEK INTERNATIONAL CO れル″″れ g ed ″ 0 ′ / 〃 0 れア Sa 襯 2 $ 0 〃 0 ん 0 d the 召 ra れ市 CO 襯な豆 0 〃′ 0 な

2. Newsweek 1981年1月5日号

HOME 、 4 Z/NBAB Ⅷ。。、第、 : る 0 、イ , the 90 0 「れ me れ t meet their 「 isi れ 9 expectations? Guerrillas turn in their guns: FO 「 some, the 響 a 「 90e5 0 れ Photos by Stephen Hone Mugabe would like tO correct the imbalance, but there are two powerful constraints working against redistribution: the white farmers are Zimbabwe's biggest earners of foreign exchange, and the Lancaster House Constitution says land may not be seized for resettlement, but must be bought by the government. Apart from the fact that he cannot afford it, Mugabe is strongly opposed t0 buying back land that white settlers took from Africans decades ago. He t0 旧 one group Of white farmers recently that he 、、 did not feel inclined to pay for land plundered decades ago from the indigenous people by the colonialists"—・ and then threatened tO seize their property without compensatlon unless Britain comes up with more aid. hat message was aimed more at reluctant aid donors ln the West than at the white farming community, and it was swiftly followed by a retraction. The reversal was part Of the secret Of Mugabe's success: his skillful use of ambiguity. The Prime Minister condemns multinationals for exploiting his country's resources, while at the same time assuring the foreign firms that their investments are safe in Zimbabwe. He preaches socialism, but says he will retain a free-market economy. SO far no one has taken Mugabe tO task. But he may run into trouble as the contradictions become more transparent. An even greater threat facing the Prime Minister comes from his inability to disarm 25 , 000 ex-guerrillas not yet integrated into the new national army. One-third are members of the old ZIPRA army, predominantly Ndebele tribesmen and fanatically 10Ya1 to Nkomo, whom they see as frozen out of the government. The rest are Shonas 0f Mugabe's 01d ZANLA force. Both factions have terrorized civilian villagers ln 、、 contested" rural areas. They have also raised the level Of violence in the black townships near Salisbury and Bulawayo, where the government has housed thou- sands 0f its out-of-work 、、 comrades. '' About 200 people have been killed in factional fighting since independence, including 55 who recently died during a vicious battle in Bulawayo. Mugabehas had almost as much trouble dealing with the flagrant excesses Of hiS own Cabinet. Some rmmsters seem more interested ln acqmring fancy homes, driving around in expensive Mercedeses and eating in gourmet restaurants than in constructive belt tight- NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 19 引 ening. Others appear t0 be b0th racist and needlessly offensive. HeaIth Minister Herbert Ushewokunze angered white hospital workers by accusing them ofdiscriminating against black patients. Finance Minister Enos Nkala sparked the Bulawayo fighting by suggesting—in the heart 0f Matabeleland, Nkomo's home turf— that Nkomo should be removed from the government. But the two men whO most embarrassed Mugabe were Tekere and Lt. Gen. Peter Walls. Walls, who had devoted most of his life tO propping up white-minority rule, surprised everyone at independence by offering t0 stay on as Mugabe's top soldier and help integrate the new Zimbabwean Army. Because he couldn 、 t conceal his distaste for the men he had to work with, Walls resigned in July. The general further angered Mugabe by disclosing that he had asked Margaret Thatcher to cancel the Zimbabwean election result because Of intimidation by Mugabe's supporters, and that he had considered the option Of a military coup. alls's departure dismayed whites, but they were more disturbed by Tekere's murderofa white farmer. Although he admitted the crime, Tekere escaped punishment through a legalloopholedesigned to shield the 01d white Rhodesian regime from prosecution for wartlme atrocities. The three-man bench found Tekere guilty as charged, but two black assessors overruled the white judge in granting Tekere immunity under a 1975 act that protected government ministers acting 、、 ln good faith for the suppression of terronsm. '' The split verdict reduced the chances Of a Cabinet reshume. Government insiders say that while he did not suspend Tekere from party or state functions during the trial, the Prime Minister had hoped for a conuction. With Tekere out of the way, he could have spiked the guns 0 「 his troublesome left wing. lnstead, Tekere emerged even stronger. Mugabe must now regain the confidence 0f whites, who think that Tekere has been given a license tO kill, and at the same time satisfy the rising expectations Of blacks. A rash Of strikes and labor unrest reflects their frustration, and they are putting pressure on the Prime Minister tO move more quickly down the road t0 socialism. Balancing the demands 0f blacks and whites will require a long-running high-wire act by Mugabe. If he falls, Zimbabwe's revolution could go down with him. 39

3. Newsweek 1981年1月5日号

THETH 旧 DWORLD A MUTED 0 ー A し OGUE on the agenda despite opposition from British Prime Minister By Anthony Sampson Margaret Thatcher. Chancellor Helmut Schmidt from West Ger- many and Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau from Canada were he first year of the new decade raised both new fears and the most energetic supporters Of a new deal for the South. But some new hope for the Third World. The economic position Thatcher resisted, and encouraged President Jimmy Carter tO Of the poorest countnes was more perllous than ever, and play down the issue as well. there were signs that the rich countries were turning their backs. ln Britain, Thatcher saw the Third WorId in the context 0f But there was also some movement toward rethinking glObal the Communist danger and her own commitment tO free-enterpnse relationships. policies. Thatcher's ministers viewed international institutions, A commission, headed by former Chancellor Willy Brandt, including the United Nations and the World Bank, as global outlined the extent 0f the Third World's predicament in a report equivalents Of the welfare state, undermining the principles Of it published ⅲ February. The commission, with eighteen members self-help and free enterprise. As a result, the Foreign Offce pub- from five continents, was a microcosm ofdisagreement and debate: lished a negative reply t0 the Brandt report. ln it, the government its members ranged from an Algerian radical, Layachi Yaker, dismissed the concerns Of the development experts, 」 ust as Other tO a Republican American banker, Peter Peterson. But despi te Thatcher advisers deplored any attempt tO promote assistance their differences, the commissioners came tO share some Of the programs that might fuel inflation. same views about causes and cures. They agreed that large amounts Many Western advocates Of more free enterprise saw signs that the South alSO was moving t0 the right. The Chilean exper- lment With StriCt monetansm encouraged Ecuador and Peru t0 follow similar recipes. The failures of socialist or Marxist states in Africa, such as Mozambique and Ang01a, led them tO seek some rapprochement with Western investors. The newly independent Zimbabwe pointedly excluded the Soviets. . the economic success Of super.com/ petitive countrles in East Asia, such as South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, in- duced Other Asian countries, including Sr1 0 Lanka and lndia, to move toward more traditionally conservative policies. till, the conservative mood in the West seemed tO work against any discussion ofrestructuring the world economy on the scale recommended by Brandt or agreeing tO the proposed summit t0 discuss North-South relations. The skep- ticism seemed tO be confirmed when the United Nations held its special session as a prelude t0 "global negotiations" in the summer. That session ended without any measurable progress. But behind the diplomatic deadlock there were important groundswells 0f public 日「 a れ d 彙 with U. 2. S ・ 0 「・ ta 「 y ・ Gen ・「 Kurt WaIdheim: Hopes and fears opinion, at least in Europe. The younger generation there reacted tO th e Brandt proposals with an en- Of emergency assistance are needed tO prevent mass starvation thusiasm that surprised many Of the commissioners. ln Holland, in the Third WorId, and they deplored the decreasing aid flow always the vanguard 0f European concern for the Third World, from richer countries. The commissioners strongly urged a sive transfer Of resources ” from developed nations tO the Third religious groups and political parties held mass meetings and WorId. They also pressed for a fundamental reorganization of issued endorsements in favor Of the report. ln Britain, the gov- ernment's apathy met with an indignant response from young the world monetary system set up under the Bretton / OOds agree- people, Christian groups and the media. And the election victory ment in 1944. They called for long-term 0i1 price stability and more effective guarantees for conserving 0i1 and for maintaining of Schmidt in West Germany gave him a new mandate to press for the proposals of Brandt, his party chairman, the value Of 0i1 revenues. By the time the report was released, however, the world scene Different kinds of pressures emerged from banks and the global had darkened. The gröwth of extremism in lran and the Soviet institutions. Both Robert McNamara at the World Bank and Jacques de Larosiére at the lnternational Monetary Fund were invasion Of . Afghanistan increased fears Of an East- 、 con- frontation, which pushed aside the longer-term warnings 0f a increasingly aware that their organizations had tO be more flexible and more generous in lending t0 the Third World. McNamara crisis between North and South. The first ma 」 or test of the West's political mood came with issued proposals for "structural adjustment" loans tO help coun- tries pay their 0 ⅱ bills, while de Larosiére argued that the IMF the Venice summit in June. There, North-South relations stayed Brian F. NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 1981 50

4. Newsweek 1981年1月5日号

THE UNITED STATES を宿 00 開 ANAN , TREASURER. 、 COMM 引 0 WASHINGTON RlCk Friedman—Black Star Reagan and Nancy salute the Ote 「 5 : Making up fO 「 a ね ck Of subtlety with a talent fO 「 communicating warmth and candor READY 02 THE RIGHT 鱇ス物第 : 第 P 一し一 N 物を : 当なに青 4 、 0 However, once the former California governor convinced the elec- By MeI EIfin torate—most pointedly during the Presidential debate in Cleve- land—that he would neither reinstitute slavery nor land the 82nd n the morning after his electoral thrashing, a subdued Airborne in the middle of Gorki Street some dark night ⅲ 1981 and reflective Jimmy Carter invited a group Of reporters Carter became a loser. A big loser. intO the OvaI Office for a candidate's-eye view Of the SadIy for the Democratic Party, Carter's personal unpopularity results. Carter cited many reasons for his defeat, among them was contagious. Even though many Democratic candidates for inflation, the hostage crisis, the high cost Of energy and the the Senate ran far ahead 0f the President on Election Day, their Cuban refugee mess. By the time he had cataloged the woes, margins were not great enough tO overcome the 、、 Carter drag. the President had blamed his loss on 」 ust about everything except The result: a veritable pogrom ofliberals and moderates on Capit01 the eruption 0fMount St. Helens and the Gang 0fFour. However, Hill. 、、 Jimmy Carter,"lamented onesurviving Democratic senator, when asked ifthe overwhelmingly negative verdict had represented 、、 took a 10t of good guys down. '' As they surveyed the Democratic any kind 0f personal repudiation, Carter replied firmly, 、、 NO. ' ' bodies littering the post-election landscape, many liberals seemed Carter's humilityoften hasbeen moresymbolic than substantive, out tO prove that conservatives dO not have a monopoly on para- and perhaps he can't really be faulted for trying t0 soothe a noia. They wrung their hands and warned that American politics pride that had been so suddenly and rudely shattered by the was about tO be engulfed by a new conservatlve ice age ・ electorate. Yet for the President tO say that an 8 million-vote IOSS tO a right-wing, 69-year-old former actor was not a personal Nonsense. re. 」 ection was almost as if Richard Nixon, when the subpoenas irst, the Democratic Party, despite the Reagan landslide started flying through the White House like Frisbees, had turned and the loss 0f the Senate, is not only alive and well, but to his chief of staff, H. R. Haldeman, and asked, 、、 B0b, do you still controls the House Of Representatives by a 50-vote think there's anything personalin this Watergate business?" margin,ama. 」 orityofstategovernorships()7 t023),anda ma 」 ority For a time last spring, disenchantment with Carter's political Of state legislatures. If the polls are t0 be believed, ⅱ also still evangelism was obscured by Sen. Edward Kennedy's almost week- has the hearts, minds and loyalties Of more Americans than does い demonstration that he was even more unpopular than the Presi- the Republican Party ( 48 to 26 per cent in a recent Gallup survey). dent. And during the fall campaign the general election stayed Second, after each of the three postwarlandslides—1956, 円 64 superficially close for SO long because it tOOk voters a little time and 1972 ーー the vanquished political party rose from the electoral tO become accustomed tO the notion that re. 」 ecting the incumbent ashes tO Win a narrow VlCtory in the very next Presidential election. President meant installing Ronald Reagan in the Oval Offce. NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 、い ) 36

5. Newsweek 1981年1月5日号

lran's soldiers 0 れ the march: Khomeini i れ Ok ・ d the threat of a new ' fO 「 eig れ devil' and consolidated his power UPI The short-term beneficiary of the fighting was lsrael. "There has never been a time when the Arab threat tO lsraeli securlty was weaker," said lsraeli-born Avi Plascov, an analyst from Lon- don's influential lnternational lnstitute for Strategic Studies. But like a number of Mideast scholars, Plascov believes that short- term gains could become long-term problems. "There is now no pressure on Begin tO make concessions toward peace," he said. "This means that the West Bank will continue tO simmer, the Palestinians there will continue to riot and the PLO could resume terrorist activities. ' ' Diplomats in Washington and Western Europe generally agree that Begin appears so committed t0 holding on to the West Bank—"Judea and Samar1a," as he calls it— that there is little point in trying tO negotiate the matter with him. At the same time, the prevailing view is that Beg1n's gov- ernment, rent with internal divisions and buffeted by lsrael's eco- nomic problems, will be toppled in 1981's elections. That would put Labor, led by Shimon Peres, back in power. As one diplomat in London put it, "Peres will be tough, but at least he doesn't believe he has a religious duty tO hang on tO the West Bank. ' he confrontations that racked the Mideast in 1980—between Syria and Jordan, lraq and lran, Arabs and lsraelis could cause some future shifts in traditional alliances. lraq's failure tO score SO much as one decisive victory against lran has shown the other Arab states that they cannot depend on Baghdad to defend them against a militant lran. Many Of those countries, long hostile tO the United States, now see Washington as a potential protector—and some Arab offlcials even say that they welcome the impending presence of the 30 , 80 members of the U. S. Rapid Deployment Force. Egypt's Anwar Sadat also sees a chance tO end his isolation from the Arab world by reminding his neighbors NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 1981 that he still commands the largest Arab fighting force which he has volunteered for any concerted drive against Khomeini, "the madman, ” as Sadat calls him. Ⅱ the turmoil could enable another power—the Soviet Union—to increase itS presence in the reg10n. The Rus- sians have toeholds in the lslamic world in Algeria, Libya, Syria and South Yemen. NOW, oddly enough, it is possible that they could expand their influence with わ 0 lran and lraq. Some Mideast analysts sense a spreading disaffection in lran with the right-wing religious regime, and these scholars say the only ben- eficiaries could be the now-dormant left wing. They could call on Russian aid and comfort in a showdown, and the Kremlin would undeniably profit in that nation Of enormous economc and geopolitical importance. ln lraq Saddam Hussein has taken a rigid anti-Russian stance over the past tWO years. If his lranian adventure fails, he could be ousted—probably by pro-Communist factions within the lraqi armed forces. Entering 1981 virtually everything in the Middle East is up for grabs. Limitless opportunities await skillful leaders, but awe- some pitfalls could trap the less adroit. Ronald Reagan and his Administration face a time Of testing, yet they approach it with more welcoming goodwill in the region than many previous Ameri- can leaders. Reagan and the ranking members Of his Admin- istration are seen by rich Arab moderates as bei ng freer tO negotiate than Democratic leaders WhO are Often seen as being t00 pro- lsrael. The past year was horrendous for most countrles in the MiddIe East and the tensions, especially ⅲ the gulf, will not die easily. For leaders 0f all governments with a stake in the region, the task Of ensuring that the events Of this year dO not poison the entire decade will be daunting.

6. Newsweek 1981年1月5日号

0 曰 N ℃ N Varindra Tarzie Vittachi A MAN NAMED KHAN met a rare man the Other day. His name is Khan and what gives him distinction is the fact that he is one "lnternational Expert" on village-development programs whO actually lives in a village. I have been in that village, a place miles from what city folk call Anywhere. There is no piped water in the village, no air conditioning, no electric fan, not even a toe-powered punkah batting the hOt breeze this way and that as was done in the days 0f the British raj. Mr. Khan's specialty is that he is a generalist. He knows how tO tie together the activities Of the I rrigation Department, the Education Department, the Health Department and the Pub- lic Works Department so that they help the people for whose benefit, presumably, such departments were established. Since he shares the life-style of the villagers and knows their 10Ca1 idiom, he has become credible. When he explains why kitchen refuse turns the rain drains outside their houses intO breeding places for the malaria mosquito, or hOW nursing mothers should—and can—have a balanced diet even if they are P00 ら The second set of "experts" came from a wider P001 of tech- nicians working for United Nations agencies. They t00 were mostly city gents bent on "transferring technology" from Europe and America t0 the developing world. The era of high dams and hydropower plants that loomed like indifferent giants over the heads of the villagers was followed by the era of overpasses and underpasses that became the new symbols 0f modern development. And still the Third World's foreign-aid debts grew while op- portunities for a tolerable life for the rural people dwindled. The people trekked t0 the cities t0 find j0bs. But the pilgrimage was t00 late; there were t00 few jObs tO go around. At the great development-planning centers—all in metropoli- tan cities Of the industrial democracles—some belated lessons were being learned. The benefits of the transfer of technical assistance and money were not trickling down tO the villages as the experts had expected. Social and economic distinctions separating the cities' elite and the country gentry from the rural poor were powerful barners against an equitable distribution and why it is better for their ba- bies to be breast-fed despite the blandishments of 、、 fashion, ' ' they believe him. One result of a11 this is that the people 0f the village have begun to be involved and to understand the development process going on around them. The buzzword for it in the operational planning cen- ters IS "community participa- tion. " Where Mr. Khan lives, that phrase iS no longer a piece Of pious humbug mouthed by professional ーれ a remote Asian village, an unusual 'lnternational Expert' keeps his feet 0 れ the 9 「 ound and SOWS the seeds Of real p 「 09 「 ess. 0f development gains. "Top down' ' development strategi es— one Of those bureaucratic phrases that means less than meets the eye or ear—、 vas found tO be in- effective because without the will- ing and active participation Of the people whose lives would be af- fected, no true social change could occur. At long last it had also become evident that if tech- nical expertise was tO be useful, it had tO be directly relevant tO the village. bureaucrats and alleged experts in made-to-measure safari j ackets, but a meaningful response tO an understood need. There are other men and women like 、嗄 r. Khan working ⅲ other villages on human-development programs, but there are still far t00 few. ln the two remaining decades of this century, many more 0f these people will be needed if the grand goals of the world community, such as "health for all by 20 開 " and "literacy for all by 2 网 ' ' are going to be more than hollow slogans. Even tO achieve the less ambitious goals Of reducing hunger and eliminating the worst aspects Of poverty, the elitist approach t0 development will have t0 change. lt t00k two decades for people t0 realize that the system that was initially established was expensive and irrelevant. lt Often served as a sinecure for colonial offcers left by the receding tide of imperialism. Often, these ex-colonials marched off toward what they called M0d- ernism. They built dams and highways and hospitals in which the doctors practiced on people when they were already sick, instead 0f preventing illness through effective health programs. The foreign experts—as well as their "local" counterparts—lived in the city and believed that what was good for urban residents was good for those wh0 lived in the villages. 56 This year's "World Development Report' ' of the World Bank enshrines these lessons. lt says that efforts tO improve people's lives must begin where the people are, that human beings are what development is all about, that the village community is the building block of national growth. That is indeed a tour de force from a body that has spent 30 years supplying money and experts tO finance top-down development programs. lt is a document that has given legitimacy tO the notion that villagers are bankable even if they cannot yet sign a check. They tell a story about the visit by Robert McNamara, the WorId Bank president, to a village in Asia. The area has been developing rapidly because now it has access tO water that can be used for irrigating the croplands. McNamara remarked t0 a farmer: "I hear you are becoming prosperous. ” The farmer replied yes, things were lmproving. "And what is your annual income asked 、åC 、 mara. ofyour business," replied the farmer and walked away. That is the most heartening human- development story I have heard in many a year. But perhaps the best thing about it is that the person whO tells the story is Robert McNamara himself. And this Asian village is the village in which Mr. Khan lives. NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 19 訂

7. Newsweek 1981年1月5日号

theless, Haig insisted that ifhe had "lf AI Haig wants to run for that's fine with us, ” said one NATO For- to, he would do it all over again ・ "I don't feel I ever violated my per- eign Minister. "But let him go home and sonal code Of ethics at any time d0 it, instead 0f getting in our way. ” Haig finally did just that, resigning as NATO precisely the opposite," he said. "I have no apologies tO anyone. ' commander in June 1979 and returning Baggage: Against the advice 0f tO the United States tO begin a nationwide speaking tour that he hoped would even- his own retainers, Ford begged Haig t0 stay on at the White House. tually propel him t0 the 1980 GOP れ om - ination. Within a few months, howev- But Haig's Watergate baggage was simply t00 heavy, and within a few er, he realized that he lacked both the necessary funds and the political base. SO months both he and the new Presi- dent realized he would have to he put aside his White House ambitions and accepted the j0b 0f president and chief leave. Though Ford wanted to re- operating 0ffcer 0f United Technologies ward Haig by naming him Army Corp. Last April Haig underwent triple- chief Of staff, the post required con- firmation by the Senate, a process bypass heart surgery. He recovered rapidly both preferred to avoid. SO Ford and completely, however, and began ma- neuvering for a place in Reagan's Cabinet sent him instead tO Brussels as com- at last summer's GOP convention. mander 0f allied forces in Europe. AP Synthesizer: Though Haig will be the His appointment as NATO chief ル″カ ga れ : / 尾イ 0 ′尾 c 〃 0 〃 r ro 〃 g 記〃 - most expenenced foreign-policy hand in initially rankled European military 0 〃 c ー住〃イ 0 ん g イ 0 〃 g ん 0 / e S の加な men, who thought he lacked suf- the Cabinet, Reagan insiders say he will ficient combat experlence for the not play the Kissingenan role 0f grand American history. " Others thought Haig job. But Haig quickly won them over. His world strategist for the Administration. may have gone t00 far—perhaps even ask- arrival in Brussels coincided with a growing That function will probably be performed realization on both sides of the Atlantic by a number ofoutside advisers—quite pos- ing Gerald Ford t0 pardon Nixon if Ford became President. Ford denied the story, that European defenses had slipped badly, sibly including Kissinger himself. But it's and Haig presided over a number of catch- not likely that Haig will be overshadowed and H4ig says he didn't arrange the pardon, though he did discuss it with Ford. up projects. He also won points for the by anyone. The role 0f national-security Haig himself recalls the Watergate pe- plucky way he reacted after a group 0f adviser will be downgraded ⅲ the Reagan unidentified assailants tried tO blow h is car White House, leaving Haig as the main riod as "those horrible days. ' 1 "There is synthesizer and implementer 0f foreign pol- nobody in the White House wh0 has suf- 0 the highway eighteen months ago. fered more from walking close to Richard But while most European omcials ad- icy. If he's .successful at State, AI Haig's extraordinary in the government may Nixon than me, ' ' he told NEWSWEEK'S mired his hard-working, tough-talking Thomas M. DeFrank after the resignation. style, they were less enthusiastic about his still not have reached its high point. "There is -very little a military man has increasingly strident warnings about the ALLAN J. MAYER with THOMAS M. DeFRANK, beyond his sense 0f personal honor, and SOViet threat and his outspoken crlticism HENRY W. HUBBARD and FRED COLEMAN in my account has been drawn on. ' ' None- of Carter's handling of the SALT Ⅱ talks. Washington and bureau reports sessing the former president's chance 0f exerting significant Richard Nixon Calling influence on Reagan's foreign policy. "That won't happen in this Administration, ” said one. Nixon still considers himself very much part 0f the Re- ls Richard Nixon finally coming ⅲ仕 om the cold? For publican foreign-policy network. He lobbied long and hard most Of the past year, the former President has been cautiously for Haig ("The meanest, toughest, most ambitious s. 0. b. I knocking on the door 0f public life, granting the occasional ever knew, but he' Ⅱ be a helluva Secretary of S tate") and interview, turning up at the occasional party, hosting dinners at his New York town house and hinting that there might against former Treasury Secretary George Sh ultz, whom he be a substantive foreign-policy role ("Maybe something like considered "not tough enough" for the job. What's more, he speaks regularly with b0th Haig and former Secretary 0f State a counselor or negotiator") for him in the Reagan Admin- istration. Nixon will attend the Henry Kissinger, and he has lnauguration next month in ルⅸ 0 〃住ーカ 0 e 加ルル YO : ″加な 0 / 住 / 0 な〃ア 0 〃 role lately taken tO advising Sen. Washington, he has phoned Charles Percy of lllinois, the Michael Evans—Gamma-Liaison Reagan twice since the election incoming chairman Ofthe Sen- ate Foreign Relations Commit- to offer foreign-policy advice tee. Whether all that input will and his candidate for Secretary of State, Alexander Haig, has add up t0 anything seems doubtful, however. One Rea- been nominated for thejob. But the Reagan camp hasn't exact- gan aide maintains that Nix- ly been encouraging the idea on's role will continue tO be that Nixon will have any maJOr much the same as at present— role in White House policy- limited and "on a very prlvate making. "l wouldn't rule any- basis. " And as Reagan himself tells it, if Nixon does have any thing out," the President-eIect told NEWSWEEK last week, part t0 play in his new Ad- 。、 and I wouldn't rule anything ministration, it will be only 、、 tO in. '' PrivateIy, Reagan aides the extent that any former were a bit more blunt in as- President does. ' NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 1981

8. Newsweek 1981年1月5日号

symbols Of the country's despair. Lying rn a hastily dug grave in the countryside 25 miles outside the capital city of San SaI- vador were the bodies offour North Ameri- can women—three nuns and a lay VOlun- teer. Each victim had been shot in the head and at least two had been raped. After the bOdies were found, three ()ther nuns came t0 pray over their lost colleagues. 、、 Oh G0d , 、、 said one, "please help us stay strong through such trials. 、 ' Late in the year, offcials in EI SaIvador tOOk a tentative step toward political sta- bility by naming the first civilian President ln nearly 50 years. But it remains tO be seen if JOSé Napole6n Duarte, a Christian Democratic member of the country's mili- tary-civilian 」 unta, will be able tO exerclse any genume influence. 、 dOSt analysts saw little prospect of real power changing hands. 、、 NO quiet realignment inside the Casa PresidentiaI can bring peace to EI Salvador," said one young army colonel. 、、 The announcement of a President won't bring a final solution, only the announce- ment Ofa war can dO that. ' There are menacing signs from the right ernment Of President R0m60 Lucas Garcfa has actively encouraged its hard-line sup- porters tO rout leftists wherever they can be found—in the country's dense north- North American れ u れ 5 slain in EI SaIvador: Savage violence from the right ern 」 ungles, in lndian villages and in quiet suburban neighborhoods. As a result, a few left-wing leaders now nagua last November. The Ministry 0f the lnterior claimed that reluctantly admit that the government has gained what one calls Salazarwas part Ofa plOt toassassinateSandinista leaders. Salazar's 、 an げ on upper hand. '' After a year 0f political orgamzmg 1n supporters deny his involvement in the conspiracy, but admit remote lndian villages, one Marxist activist said, 、、 The left in that the businessman was engaged in 、、 anti-government planning. Guatemala has never been stronger or more unified. '' But, he Said one colleague: 、、 Like a 10t 0f us, he was extremely frustrated added, the right has new incentives Of its own. 、、 Now that the by the refusal Ofthe government tO commit itselfto free enterprise government leaders have Mr. 、 Human Rights' Carter 0 their or free elections. lt says a 10t when you have guys like Salazar backs, they have a new bravura in trying to consolidate their resorting tO guns as the most likely solution. Of a counter-revolution iS becommg and more com- power. mon in Managua. 、、 Conservatives can get as desperate as guer- ven in long-peaceful countries like COSta Rica, the tension ' said one Nicaraguan businessman whose Wife was killed rillas,' between left and right is increasing. The government of in last year's upheaval. 、、 If we have to fight again for freedom, President Rodrigo Carazo Odio gave early support to the we will fight. '' The junta 、 s critics are demanding that the San- Sandinistas in Nicaragua, an act of political generosity that has dinistas issue a coherent policy statement outlining goals and encouraged the far left and given rise tO a sophisticated, well- ideological positions. SO far, the government has not complied. financed anti-Communist campaign on the right. Some govern- 、、 Our priority is tO rebuild Nicaragua, not tO write political position ment offlCials now regret their aid and comfort to the Sandinistas papers," said 」 unta member SergiO Ramfrez. because Of the problems it has created at home. 、、Ⅵ ' e acted on faith with them," said one high-ranking offlcial. 、、 But after a lthough violence and upheaval seem t0 be the solution year and a half, we're still acting on faith alone. At least with Of choice for most Central American countrles, there are Somoza, you knew 」 ust what you were dealing with. what one U. S. State Department official called 、、 patches Many Nicaraguans also are disappointed with the Sandinistas' of relative sanity. '' Panama and Honduras both held national performance. Conservativesand embittered membersoftheprivate elections this year without senous incident or allegations offraud. sector claim the government's real post-revolutionary Ob 」 ective And there are other bright spots as well. Several dotlike islands is tO build totalitarian political power. Critics charge that the in the Caribbean, notably Dominrca and St. Kitts-Nevis, also Sandinistas have curtailed the press and undercut freedom of have held undisputedly democratic elections. But it was the bal- speech and assembly by effectively banning all nongovernment lOting in Jamaica that drew the most regional attention. After political campaigning. Even many Of the Roman Catholic clergy a bloody summer of campaigning, during which hundreds of wh0 aided the Sandinistas are dismayed by what a Managua Jamaicans were killed, pro-business Labor Party candidate Ed- priest calls 、、 the government's mortal sins against the spirit Of ward Seaga was elected by a wide margm tO replace former Prime the revolution. Minister Michael Manley, a socialist with personal ties tO Cuban But the most serlous charges against the Sandinistas came after President FideI Castro. The United States was particularly pleased government security forces killed Jorge Salazar, president of the by the outcome. 、、 lt's not 」 ust that Seaga is pro-U. S. ,,, explained Nicaraguan COffee Growers ASSOC1at10n, ln a shoot-out near Ma- one State Department Offcial after the election. 、、 lt 、 s that the 4 4 たみ廴 . ・ = 亠ノー 」 Ohn HoagIand—Gamma-Liaison NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 円制

9. Newsweek 1981年1月5日号

THE MIDDLE EAST Arnaud BorreI—Slpa-BIack Star An lraqi casualty in Baghdad: An unexpected and seemingly unwinnable war brought れ e 物 turmoil tO a troubled 「 egiO れ By Tony 0 ftO れ raq and lran plunged headfirst intO an unexpected—and ap- parently unwinnable—war for control Of their vital Persian Gulf 0 ⅱ fields and waterways. Syria and Jordan, never the best of neighbors, ordered thousands of troops tO a face-off on their border in a bully-boy maneuver that re-emphasized the Arab world's internal divisions. The ever-glacial peace talks between lsrael and Egypt stopped dead once again because Of lsrael's drive tO establish more settlements in the occupied West Bank and the disputes within Menachem Begin's government. As a result, 1980 was an ominous year for the fractious MiddIe East— and it may have marked the beginning Of the most dangerous decade in modern history for that chronically troubled region. ln past years the bitter and bloody clashes between lsraelis and Arabs have been the area's most clear and present danger. But in 1980 the prospect of another all-out war on that front faded somewhat because 0f the Camp David agreement. Whatever its failings are, or may prove tO be, the accord temporarily removed the most immediate source Of tension and kept the lid on a Slm- mermg pot. But then lran's messlanic ruler Ayat011ah Ruh011ah Khomemi set a new caldron boiling. Throughout the year he and his numons not only prolonged the seemingly senseless cap- tivity 0f 52 American hostages but waged a propaganda war with Teheran's lslamic rivals in Baghdad. When September came, the tWO countries stopped trading words and started trading bul- lets. The fighting since then has been nonstop, and Middle East 26 experts fully expect that the battle will continue well int0 1981. The consensus is that lraq's President Saddam Hussein made a monumental mistake when he started shooting. lranian exiles, notably former Prime Minister Shahpur Bakhtiar, had whispered tO Saddam that Khomelni's regime was tottering and that a mere nudge would topple it. The lraqi leader believed what he was told. He ordered his well-equipped army and air force tO launch a pre-emptive strike against lran. HiS aims were clear: tO force lran tO surrender the islands known as Greater and Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa in the Strait of Hormuz; tO take control Of the Shatt al Arab, the entryway t0 the Gulf; t0 seize lran's oil-pro- ducing province 0f Khuzestan with its refinery complex at Aba- dan—and t0 spark a popular revolt against Khomeini. So far, Saddam has failed in every respect. hree months after his initial assault, his forces remained at a standstill. They have secured only a shaky f00th0 旧 in lranian territory. They have been continually harassed and bloodied by lran's revolutionary guards and by a surprisingly effective lranian Air Force. NOW the invading lraqis face three months Of rainy winter weather, which will make any further advances punishing, and perhaps impossible. Far from being top- pled, Khomeini has been able to invoke the threat from a second 、、 foreign devil" tO persuade the lranian masses tO unite against an ancestral Arab enemy and consolidate his grip on power. By contrast, all that Saddam has managed tO dO is tO give lran 、 s zealots added strength—and imperil his own position. NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 、円引

10. Newsweek 1981年1月5日号

LATIN AMER ℃ A dinistas and with the Panamanian Government. And Mexico and people Of Jamaica decided, despite pressure from outside sources, Venezuela have extended oil-credit agreements tO several finan- that they wanted a move away from the left. ' cially strapped Central American and Caribbean countries heavily As the 、、 outside source" with the strongest political and eco- dependent on imported petroleum. nomlC stake in the region, the United States would obviously Friendly persuasion has its limits. Tension in the reg10n will like to see that trend continue. ln EI Salvador, Washington has not be easily relieved by foreign pressure and outside money. tried tO minimize the appeal ofthe revolutionary left by supporting ln the short run, the 0ut100k is for more strife, more violence, a moderate military-civilian government and by urgmg significant more death. "We will certainly see more struggle here," said agranan and banking reforms. And in Nicaragua, American P01- one U. S. diplomat in Central America. 、、 We will see more funerals. lcymakers are trying tO encourage access tO the government by One hopes that intelligent decisions can still be made in these moderate groups. The United States, however, is not the only countries and accepted without violence by their people, that country hoping tO win friends and influence politicians in Central not every country has tO go through its own revolution. '' The America. Castro's Cuba maintains a large force Of 、、 advisers" trouble, as the diplomat sadly noted, is that hope is a fragile in Nicaragua. The Soviets have expanded their embassy staff in Managua and supplemented trade agreements with the San- thing in that part 0f the world. JubiIant Cubans a ⅳ i れ 9 at Key West: An expected trickle of refugees turned into a floodtide Of emigres a consumer society were usually far beyond AN EMBARRASSING EXODUS reach. Some Ofthe immigrants got in trou- ble; 29 tried to skyjack planes to Cuba and At first, it seemed that Fidel Castro had one refugee was charged with the murder months, the Cuban refugees poured into found the perfect means of attacking the the United States by air and sea, hopeful Of his sponsor. More than 1 , 700 who had enemy from within. He temporarily eased of finding on foreign shores what they evl- committed senous crlmes in Cuba or ln restrictions on emigration tO the United dently had lost at home: a belief in the the refugee camps were detained in U. S. States and then allowed thousands of Cu- future. For the vast ma 」 ority Of the new- prisons. Other Cubans—lonely and disil- bans—including more than a few misfits lusioned—asked aloud if the United States comers, resettlement went smoothly, but and common cnminals—to 」 Oin the out- the Cubans found that capitalism isn't all came even close tO a promised land. bound traffic. But the idea backfired. The tape decks and designer 」 eans. LOW pay For all their problems, most of the ref- trickle Of humanity that Castro had ex- and high unemployment interrupted their ugees have settled in with reasonable suc- pected turned int0 a f100d tide of fed-up dreams of the good life—and even sent a cess. They recelve support and advice from C ″わ〃 They clung to the sides ofMiami- few on desperate missions back tO Cuba. the 800,000 Cubans already living in the based fishing boats and pushed their way Said one refugee worker: 、、 They came here United States. Generally, there is a sense ontO transport planes—a tOtal ofmore than and woke up to reality. that, given time, the refugees will ad 」 ust 124 000 islanders who wanted to call it TOday the question remams: are the Cu- tO the United States—and vice versa. Carlos quits. By far, the bulk of the crowd was ArboIeya, whO fled Havana twenty years bans in the United States better 0 than composed 0f law-abiding members 0f the before? After their first euphoric shouts ago, recalls that there were some diffcult working class. For them, Castro's revolu- of 、 / わの・ d / ' ' many refugees began grum- moments when he arrived, t00. 、、 Back then, tion meant little more than empty words bling about life in their new world. The everyone said there was no room, no JObS, 、 and empty plates. lmnugrants were Often treated With sus- noted Arboleya, now a bank president in The exodus put the United States' open- picion—and even hostility. Well-paying Miami. 、、 But things worked out well—and door policy tO the test. For five frenzied jobs were hard to find and the baubles of they will again. AP NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 円新 42