P ℃ TURES OF THE YEAR 読第 -0 を . 。ま 、」 0 ・まトを ankind's best efforts tO provide spectacles paled beside the power of a restive earth. ln May, a blast equal tO the most powerful nuclear device ever exploded blew the top 0f Mount St. Helens 10 miles into the sky above Ameri- ca's Pacific Northwest. While workers combed its newly moonscaped slopes for victims, dark clouds rained a blizzard of ash stretching halfway to the Mississippi River. July's Moscow OIympics offered a meticulously programed pageant that scaled the heights Of organization and ef- ficiency. But a boycott protesting the SOViet invasion 0f Afghanistan stripped much 0f the heart and happiness from the Games. Along the shores ofthe Mediterranean, ter- rible earthquakes once again reaped an aw- ful human toll. A total of 20 , 000 people died in Algeria in Oct0ber and one month later another catastrophic quake killed 3 000 people and left 300 , 000 homeless across 16 , 600 square miles 0f southern lt- aly. Almost a billion miles away, the Voy- ager l's photographic probe 0f Saturn 0f- fered spectacular testimony tO man's scientific daring. Voyager's crystalline PIC- tures Of the giant planet, its rings and its moons contrasted the ma. 」 esty Of the heav- Tony Duffy—Duomo ens with the suffering back home on earth. The ' 0 ck 物 0 「 k Games': Pomp and panoply at the 0500 響 0 mpics 24 NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 19 制

き ! ート Afghan ins 「 9e0 彙 5 in a mountain hide-out: 'We have fought a supe 「 po 響・′ tO a standstill fO ′ t 0 ⅳ 0 months' after thirteen Khalqi army omcers were executed on suspicion 0 the Soviet occupiers and the remnants of the Afghan Army. of plotting a coup. At that point, the Parcham faction began 'We take our guns on the battlefield from the Russians," claimed a full-scale purge of its rivals from all top military and government Jamal Ahmad, who belongs to another insurgent group. positions. Despite dogged resistance from the insurgents, it seems likely that historic and geographic realities will dictate the establishment he incessant feuding in Kabul has had a predictable effect : of a leftist government in KabuI that is more or less sympathetic it has narrowed the base Of the Communist Party—preciseIy to 、åoscow ' s concerns. ln the meantime, the Soviets are digglng the opposite 0f what the Soviets had hoped for when they in for a long stay. A major depot for fuel and materials is under installed Karmal. By waging war on the Khalq, KarmaI has construction at Pul-i-Khumri, in north-central Afghanistan, and alienated the party faction that commands 60 per cent Of Com- the Soviets are laying a large 0i1 pipeline tO the area. They have munist support in the country. Outside the party the situation alSO extended the runways at four air bases ⅲ Afghanistan, built is even worse, because while it is unlikely that the Khalqi leaders huge aircraft hangars, constructed new housing for personnel and set up seven reglonal military commands Of division strength. would ever defect tO the non-Communist Muj ahedin insurgents, the same cannot be said of many of their followers. There have This is disturbing news for both the rebels and for Pakistan, already been rumblings of a Khalq-Muj ahedin alliance, and if smce the Soviets are bound tO step up pressure on Pakistan's the reports turn out tO be true Karmal's position may become President Mohammad Zia ul-Haq to force him to curb the exiles' untenable. That, in turn, creates still another headache for the freedom. MiIitariIy, the Soviets may also continue their frequent SOViet overlords and increases the likelihood of long-term oc- violations Of Pakistani airspace, and perhaps even resort tO hOt cupation. "lt has been clear from the beginning," said a Western pursuit 0f the guerrillas fleeing into Pakistan. ambassador, "that the Soviets' Obj ective ⅲ entering Afghanistan was t0 provide a securlty umbrella under which an Afghan regime OSCOW appears tO have ruled out any suggestion that the could rebuild all the country's institutions. There has not been United Nations send a fact-finding mission to the area. a shadow 0f progress. ' That, ⅲ turn, eliminates the possibility Of an interna- The prospect of cooperation between the Khalq and the Mu- tionally negotiated settlement. One Western intelligence source j ahedin is chilling tO the Soviets because the non-Communist believes the Kremlin may eventually see certain benefits flowing rebels have been a formidable foe even without any indigenous from the occupation. "The Soviet Army has not been bloodied allies. " have fought a superpower to a standstill for twelve for a long time," he said 、 "Afghanistan provides a handy, nearby months," claimed Najibullah Lafraise, a member of a Peshawar- training ground tO test weapons, tactics and troops in actual based lslamic insurgent group. Apart from small arms and 応 od battle. " Moscow's men and machines will probably pass—but supplies from outside the country, the insurgents have been living the test will take a 10t longer to finish than they had expected. Pascal Manoukian—Sygma NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 1981

P ℃ TURES OF THE YEAR mbitious and angry men overthrew their natlons' government.s, while Other attempts tO shift the balance Of power met fierce reSIStance. Some Of the mighty fell and others unexpectedly regained power. Yugoslavia's President JO- sip Broz TitO died in May and was buried with pomp in a state funeral attended by dozens ofworld leaders—but not by Jimmy Carter. lndira Gandhi, who was forced out of offce in March 1977 after 幻 months Of dictatorial rule, won a masslve election victory that gave her a new term as lndia's Prime Minister. Change came at gunpoint in Liberia, where an unknown soldier, Sgt. Samuel Doe, led a coup in which President William Tolbert was assassinated and the government ofAfrica's most stable republic was vengefully toppled. ln Afghanistan, SOViet invaders tried tO turn yet another natIOn 1ntO a Commumst- 国 oc satellite. But defiant nationalist rebels, armed only with antiquated weapons, kept up a yearlong struggle tO preserve their country's independence.. 人 n invasron Ofan- Other sort struck the lranian Embassy in London. Muslim fanatics seized the build- ing, but when they murdered one 0f their hostages, BritiSh commandos englneered a daring rescue m1SSion that saved the lives Ofall the remalnlng captives. 」 . Pavlovsky—Sygma TitO ・ 5 in state: The death of a f60 れ 9 patriot put a れ atiO れ ' 5 future in doubt Comman 05 mo ・ in as a h05 を ag ・・・ S a besieged embassy: A daring 「・ 50u を BaIdev—Sygma Saying it with れ OW ・「 5 : Gandhi 「・ ig れ 5 a れ・ NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 円制 22

THE SOVIET BLOC By WiIIiam E. Schmidt ech Walesa hardly seemed like a man to make a revolution. He is unassuming, unimposing and, until he tOOk control of Poland's labor movement, he was also unemployed. But ⅲ 1980 , Walesa led a workers' revolt against the Polish Gov- ernment—and its Soviet overlords—that shook the world. He forced an Eastern-bloc government tO recognize a free labor union for the first time ever, and he wrote a charter for that union that did not pay obeisance tO the Communist Party. His message was simple and he said it over and over again during the workers' struggle: "l want democracy. WaIesa's trlumph was electrifying largely because the odds against him were SO long. Yet in his victory lurked the specter of defeat. Even in August, during the first strikes ⅲ the Gdansk shipyards, the threat Of a SOViet invasion loomed as a sobering counterpoint t0 the exhilarating upnsing 0f the P01ish working class. The workers made history, but they evoked history, t00 : Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 were painful re- minders that expenments in freedom could be crushed by Soviet tanks. As the year drew tO a close, the lingenng question remained unanswered: how far would the workers be permitted t0 go before the Kremlin decided enough was enough? No one doubted that the Soviets would move on Poland if they felt the country was slipping from their grasp. Yet even as Russian troops massed at the border, KremIin offlcials said they hoped the P01ish Government could solve its own problems. "We do not want to interfere in the Polish situation or harp on its negative aspects," said Vadim Zagladin Ofthe SOViet Commu- Striking 00a ー miners in SiIesia: HO 響 far 響 0 ー the 響 0 「 ke 「 5 be nist Party's foreign department. With 80 , 网 troops in Afghan- istan and another half million along the Chinese border, attacking Yet the erosion of Communist control in Poland—and the possible evolution Ofa more nationalistic, pluralistic state would Poland would be a costly and awkward undertaking for Moscow. And the United States and its allies were quick to issue harsh be an unacceptable challenge t0 the SOViet Union. TO SOViet mili- tary planners, P01and is the linchpin 0f the Eastern-bloc defense warnings. President Jimmy Carter said that ・ "the future policies Of the United States toward the Soviet Union would be directly network, a strategic link between the western edge Of the SOViet and adversely affected by any use of Soviet force in P01and. ' Union and frontline units in East Germany. SOViet concerns about Although Carter' s tough warnings tO the Soviets over Afghanistan the geopolitical and strategic stakes 0f losing con trol 0f P01and had softened when Western allies failed to respond, this time were apparent in a recent Tass commentary: it warned that a he had the full cooperation 0f NATO leaders. "Afghanistan is nationwide rail strike in P01and would cripple the link between one thing, " said a government omcial in Bonn. "This is Europe. Moscow and East Germany—and pose a direct threat tO POIish Moscow has already resorted tO nonmilitary strategies in an security. attempt tO correct POlish waywardness. Communist Party leader Edward Gierek was replaced by Stanislaw Kania, who reshumed iberalization in Poland poses more than a military threat, the PoIitburo and enlisted the support of hard-liner Gen. Miec- however: Soviet leaders fear that Poland will become 4 zyslaw Moczar as the party's enforcer. "Moscow put the POIes model for Other Eastern-bIoc nations beset by the economlc on probation," said one European diplomat. "While it may have problems and food shortages that triggered the P01ish strikes. ruled out armed intervention for a while, this may be the necessary The KremIin leadership is also worried about unrest from within. first step tO eventual intervention. ' ' The second step, some analysts SOViet industrial workers, like their POlish counterparts, face severe suggested, could be an invasion in the guise Of Warsaw Pact shortages 0f meat and dairy products, and party boss Leonid maneuvers, designed tO put the Western allies 0 the track and Brezhnev has lately taken to reassuring the public that the gov- head 0 the diplomatic and economic sanctions the West has ernment is working t0 solve the problem. 、、 Can we take for granted been threatening. Other analysts contended that Moscow would any longer the fear and long-suffering patience 0f the Soviet peo- continue t0 keep its distance, negligible though it might be, as ple?' ' wondered one diplomat. Another concern is that the up- long as the P01es did not take an overtly anti-Soviet line. "One heaval in P01and, coming on top 0f an lslamic rebellion in Af- Of the critical differences between the situation in Poland and ghanistan, could create problems in the SOViet Union's ethnic Czechoslovakia, ' ' a diplomat told NEWSWEEK, "is that so far republics. Lithuania, which shares a border with P01and and no one has attacked the Soviet Union, or the basic nature of is largely Cath01ic, is a special worry. Soviet fears 0f a sympathetic Soviet-Polish ties. ' Lithuanian reaction tO the events in POland may explain why NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 1981 28

LETTERS lran and the Hostages I am no longer surprlsed when I read that the experts in the State Department cannot figure out what the lranians are up t0 (WORLD AFFAIRS, Nov. 10 ) , but per- haps I can be 0f some help. When a country violates international law and diplomatic rules, destroys property and imprisons the citizens Of another country, we speakers 0f English have an earthy 01d Anglo-Saxon word for the situation. lt is called war. THOMAS 、生 KAIGLER Tucson, AriZ. Notwithstanding my Pepper Pike ad- dress, I have been to the city and do not shock easily. However, I must admit my disbelief in reading your interview with George Ball (Nov. 10 ). True, the hostage situation, like soap operas, iS dramatic, in- tnguing, pathetic and seemingly never-end- ing. What BaII overlooked is that soap op- eras are designed tO entertain. What is entertaining about 52 people in limbo? LENORE KAPLAN Pepper Pike, Ohi0 I was moved tO tears when reading the “ Letters From the Hostages" (WORLD AF- FAIRS, Nov. 10 ). The American diplomats have been held for more than a year by barbarians. Their lives have been constantly in danger, and they must have suffered great anguish. But their letters were largely con- fident and optimistic. lt is a small but just measure Of revenge tO know that the hos- tages are mnocent and that by endorsing their captivity the Ayat011ah Khomeini has made himself a hostage tO history. CHENG FU-MING Sian City, China The Heights e 0 Descnptive phrasing is certainly a writ- er's privilege, but I must take issue with some Of the dubious terminology used in your report on the G01an Heights (WORLD AFFAIRS, Nov. 10 ). The Heights were not, as you say, "seized" by lsrael during the Six Day War. True, they were conquered, occupied and t0day are administered by lsrael, but they were not seized in the sense of illegally and peremptorily grabbed. You continue this theme when you refer tO ls- rael's "latest land-grab attempt. " The point should be made that the Heights are stra- tegically important for lsrael. Only since 1967 have lsraelis living in the valley below not had tO spend six nights a week in bunk- ers listening tO the Syrians broadcast de- scnptions Of their ultimate fate. DAVID SABLE Jerusalem Letters tO the Editor, with the writer's name and address, should be sent to: Letters Editor, Newsweek, 444 Madison Avenue, New York, N. Y. 10022. Letters may be edited for reasons Of space and clarity. NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 1981 0 0 0 0 6 ro 打社 d me m00 れ〃 g ん t and roses, e 怩ⅲれ g ⅵれ記ⅳ , C ん Regal. W 砒んゆれ e 卍 " 2

BorreI—Sipa-BIack Star UPI T 〃 r 川 0 ″加ー S 記イ 0 ら the ル 0 ′加 eg 〃 ~ 0 co 〃 $ / 0 ア r 川 , 〃〃 0 襯房 g 〃 0 ' eag 住ル〃 g / 0 尾 ig 〃ア 0 ″ A P01icy of Resurgence drifting from criSiS tO criSiS, Reagan's ad- visers believe. American military readiness will be substantially improved, and any arms-control talks with the Russians will By Fred CoIeman, DipIomatic Correspondent be conducted from a position Of renewed strength. At a minimum, this means mam- f RonaId Reagan and Alexander Haig abroad again, but this time on a more se- I tenance Of the present . American air and lective basis than that 0f world police- have their way, U. S. foreign policy will sea superiorlty in order tO stop the Soviets man. TO be successful, resurgence requires radically change course beginning in 1981 , from projecting their military power t0 dis- the right choices—which weapons t0 build, for only the third time since World r tant parts Of the world. Accommodations Ⅱ . Phase 1 , the containment of Commu- WhiCh issues tO stress, WhiCh reglons tO defend by force, which burdens t0 shift such as trade and arms-control agreements nism, ended with the American defeat in will be firmly linked to Soviet behavior on tO allies. Reagan insiders consider fu- Vietnam. Phase 2 , the relaxation Of ten- the world stage. "I have alway been a pro- sions promised by détente, collapsed with tile any attempt by the United States t0 ponent 0f linkage," Haig says ・ the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the regain unilateral supenority over the SO- ・ Modernizing the alliance. NATO was threat to the Persian Gulf 0 ⅱ fields. Phase viets across the board. The world Reagan and Haig inherit is formed for the conditions of the 1950S , the 3 , the Reagan watershed, is intended to perceived SOViet threat tO Western Europe. dominated by these grim facts: the Soviets mark the-resurgence Of American power. already equal U. S. nuclear strength and The alliance is ill equipped to deal with As Haig put it last year: "A firm, un- the principal challenge 0f the 1980S , in- ambiguous demonstration Of renewed U. S. may surpass it, U. S. policymakers can no longer orchestrate the way European allies stability in the Persian Gulf. Reagan ad- strength and ability t0 lead is long overdue. '' V1sers believe that a consistent policy, free and Japan respond to the Soviet challenge, 、 resurgence iS a wise or even from the zigzags Of the Carter years, will and the West survives on energy supplies feasible policy remains tO be seen. But there from the politically unstable Persian Gulf, encourage the Europeans tO share more can be little doubt it will be tried, perhaps Of the military and economic burdens in under another name. Richard Allen, Rea- inconveniently located in 、 IOSCOW ' S stra- meeting the Soviet challenge beyond Eu- tegic backyard. Haig thinks such factors gan's foreign-policy adviser, prefers the rope. ThiS iS by no means certain. Euro- could converge t0 make the 1980S the most word "renalssance. " Zbigniew Brzezinski, peans like tO think they have the statesmen President Carter's national-security advis- dangerous decade since World War Ⅱ . But and Americans have the power. They are er, talks Of "revitalization. '' AII draw sup- his goals are far more modest than renewed American superiority. "Clearly the task wrong on bOth counts. Vietnam and lran port from the same sea change in American proved the limits 0f American power. And ahead in this vital decade will be the man- thinking. Reagan will be the first American there has been no European statesman since President to take omce since the Vietnam agement 0f g10bal Soviet power," the Sec- Charles de Gaulle able to move beyond retary-designate t01d the Republican con- War with a broad, bipartisan consensus for national interest toward a ViSion Of Europe vention last summer. He warned that the a more assertive foreign policy tO protect as a united political power. The time may United States cannot do the job alone. "I the country's vital interests abroad. have come for AmericanS tO question their have reminded our friends in Europe that There are, of course, very sharp limits policy 0f Europe first. America' s trade with the days are gone when they could sit on tO that mandate. Resurgence does not imply Asia is more important than its trade with the sidelines," said Haig. a return to the cold war, an all-out arms Europe. The Third World is a bigger export Many details ofthe Reagan-Haig foreign race, another try at glObal containment Of market for the United States than Europe policy haven't yet been worked out. But Communism or an automatic willingness and Japan combined. If the Europeans and the ma. 」 or priorities already are clear. They t0 intervene with force abroad. The key the -Japanese cannot agree on more equl- question bOils down t0 this: dO you send include: table burden-sharing within the alliance, in the Marines? If the Soviets try tO station ・ Reinvigorating ま he American domestic the United States has the option Of uni- economy. NO Other single step in the new nuclear missiles-in Nicaragua, the answer laterally shifting its attention tO vital areas Administration 's first tWO years could con- is probably yes. If Marxists seize power tribute more tO its ability tO influence bOth like the gulf, forcing the allies t0 d0 more there an d redistribute the land, the answer tO defend their own regions. is probably no. adversaries and allies abroad. ■ Rethinking the ル d10 East. Carter's ln short, resurgence IS something new, ・ Meeting 山 0 Soviet challenge. Engage- greatest foreign-policy success was prob- a readiness tO flex Amencan muscles ment on the world scene is less risky than NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 1981 16 FA 旧 S

Helsinki accords on European security own problems," he said, "and the Soviet cooperation, the United States warned Union ln no way intends tO interfere in From the Brink 、åoscow that an invasion would make their affairs. ' certain casualty ” Of the agreements. ln a Any Western optimism generated by more low-key attempt tO ease tensions, the land' s peace. Representatives 0f about 3.2 Ponomaryov' S assurance was undercut by Carter Administration urged the European the next day's bristling commentary in million pnvate farmers were demanding Pravda. Signed ・ by 、、 AIeksei Petrov," the allies tO hasten f00d shipments t0 P01and that the government license their union. to help relieve the Christmas shortages. pseudonym used t0 reflect top-level Krem- After the Gdansk ceremony, Warsaw or- The Administration was modestly en- lin thinking, the article was a tough re- dered Poland's first meat rationing since couraged by the sight 0f workers, party j 0inder t0 a NATO comm unique warning World War Ⅱ to ensure an equitable dis- and church coming together in Gdansk on tribution Of ham and other traditional that Soviet intervention in Poland would Christmas foods. a platform Of moderation and reconcili- destroy détente. Pravda said the West ation. AII the same, the sense Of crisis had "would be quite satisfied ” ifthe Communist At Poland ' s borders, Soviet forces re- far from passed. "This will be a long story, mained in a state of full mobilization and Party lost control 0fP01and, and it vaguely said a weary U. S. criSiS manager, "almost accused some NATO members 0f prepar- alert for a second week, but there was no like a Polish soap opera that will go on evidence that the decision tO intervene had ing "t0 step over the generally recognized and on with always the chance ofsomething been made. The Kremlin's apologists were norms Of international relations and pass from ideological intervention in P01ish af- going awry. " With Walesa's help, Kania busy softening up Western European public had shown Moscow that he could calm , . to interference Ofa different kind. ' opinion, arguing that if Poland "invites' ' fairs . at least for the time being, the enthusiasms CasuaIty: The Carter Administration armed Soviet assistance the same cover of Poland's newly emancipated workers. they used for the invasion 0f Afghanistan— kept up its stream Of warnings about the He had yet to show that he could roll back consequences Of a SOViet assault on PoIand. Moscow's move should not be regarded some 0f the sweeping civil liberties and la- At another 0f his on-the-record press brief- as a threat tO détente or tO Western Europe. bor freedoms granted after last summer's ings, national-security adviser Zbigniew Central Committee members Vadim Zagla- strikes. By all signs, the Soviets needed Brzezinski brushed 0 the conciliatory talk din, talking t0 an ltalian newspaper, and more than the evidence 0f a comradely rally from Ponomaryov, declaring: "lt would be VaIentin FaIin, talking tO a West German in Gdansk that Poland's workers were will- a contribution tO a lessening Of tension interviewer, maintained that 、åoscow had ing tO accept the constraints Of a Com- if such statements were accompanied by no intention Of disciplining Poland on its munist system. a disengagement 0f the forces deployed own initiative. On a ViSit tO Par1S, a promi- around P01and and a scaling down 0f their nent Central Committee secretary, Boris STEVEN STRASSER with WILLIAM E. SCHMIDT state of readiness. ' ' At the Madrid con- Ponomaryov, pounded home the point. in Moscow, JANE WHITMORE in Washington ference revlewing compliance With the "The PoIes are big enough to settle their and bureau reports And the peculiarities of the desert will force 0ther changes in bOth operations and equip- ment. "Sand got intO every- thing, ” said Carl Carrano, a squad leader. S01diers needed scarves and goggles tO protect their faces. Thej M-16 rifle proved t00 sensitive tO sand and t00 short-range for the vast desert. Troops would prefer a weapon similar tO the Older, heavier M- 14 or even the So- viet-made AK-47 rifles. Terrain: Helicopters could also be vulnerable in the desert. Sand eroded com pressor-blade tips and tail rotors. The fea- AP tureless terrain posed another kind of problem for pilots. 0 〃川 0 〃 eu e ′ in Eg. ツ 2 た The test ル $ success, み〃ーれ e ル C 住 0 〃ア住 ge な 0 〃イ r With direction and distance al- most impossible tojudge, some desert-bound copters will need better navigating equipment Fighting in 0i1 Country and laser range-finders for missiles. RDF commanders said that, over-all, Bright Star proved the reliability of the American soldier and his machinery— The U. S. Army's green camouflage uniforms were fine for even though the exercise was conducted under circumstances the jungles 0f Vietnam, but on a clear day in the deserts, that were hardly warlike. The 1 48 troops never strayed more an enemy could spot them miles away. That was one Of the than 1 5 miles from their base near Cairo, easing the problem basic lessons learned last month during Operation Bright Star, 0f securing water. Showers, laundry, fresh fruit and even h0t the Rapid Deployment Force' s first taste of duty in the Middle meals were available daily. But Bright Star pinpointed vul- East. After evaluating the twelve-day maneuvers in Egypt, nerabilities that would have passed unnoticed on training ex- RDF commanders last week declared the test a success— ercises in the American Southwest, enabling the RDF tO know but said that work needs to be done before American forces just what it will be up against should the United States actually can fight effectively in 0 ⅱ country. have tO wage war in the desert. For one thing, new orange-gray camouflage iS now on order. 7 NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 1981

THE MIDDLE EAST Arnaud BorreI—Slpa-BIack Star An lraqi casualty in Baghdad: An unexpected and seemingly unwinnable war brought れ e 物 turmoil tO a troubled 「 egiO れ By Tony 0 ftO れ raq and lran plunged headfirst intO an unexpected—and ap- parently unwinnable—war for control Of their vital Persian Gulf 0 ⅱ fields and waterways. Syria and Jordan, never the best of neighbors, ordered thousands of troops tO a face-off on their border in a bully-boy maneuver that re-emphasized the Arab world's internal divisions. The ever-glacial peace talks between lsrael and Egypt stopped dead once again because Of lsrael's drive tO establish more settlements in the occupied West Bank and the disputes within Menachem Begin's government. As a result, 1980 was an ominous year for the fractious MiddIe East— and it may have marked the beginning Of the most dangerous decade in modern history for that chronically troubled region. ln past years the bitter and bloody clashes between lsraelis and Arabs have been the area's most clear and present danger. But in 1980 the prospect of another all-out war on that front faded somewhat because 0f the Camp David agreement. Whatever its failings are, or may prove tO be, the accord temporarily removed the most immediate source Of tension and kept the lid on a Slm- mermg pot. But then lran's messlanic ruler Ayat011ah Ruh011ah Khomemi set a new caldron boiling. Throughout the year he and his numons not only prolonged the seemingly senseless cap- tivity 0f 52 American hostages but waged a propaganda war with Teheran's lslamic rivals in Baghdad. When September came, the tWO countries stopped trading words and started trading bul- lets. The fighting since then has been nonstop, and Middle East 26 experts fully expect that the battle will continue well int0 1981. The consensus is that lraq's President Saddam Hussein made a monumental mistake when he started shooting. lranian exiles, notably former Prime Minister Shahpur Bakhtiar, had whispered tO Saddam that Khomelni's regime was tottering and that a mere nudge would topple it. The lraqi leader believed what he was told. He ordered his well-equipped army and air force tO launch a pre-emptive strike against lran. HiS aims were clear: tO force lran tO surrender the islands known as Greater and Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa in the Strait of Hormuz; tO take control Of the Shatt al Arab, the entryway t0 the Gulf; t0 seize lran's oil-pro- ducing province 0f Khuzestan with its refinery complex at Aba- dan—and t0 spark a popular revolt against Khomeini. So far, Saddam has failed in every respect. hree months after his initial assault, his forces remained at a standstill. They have secured only a shaky f00th0 旧 in lranian territory. They have been continually harassed and bloodied by lran's revolutionary guards and by a surprisingly effective lranian Air Force. NOW the invading lraqis face three months Of rainy winter weather, which will make any further advances punishing, and perhaps impossible. Far from being top- pled, Khomeini has been able to invoke the threat from a second 、、 foreign devil" tO persuade the lranian masses tO unite against an ancestral Arab enemy and consolidate his grip on power. By contrast, all that Saddam has managed tO dO is tO give lran 、 s zealots added strength—and imperil his own position. NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 、円引

A Capitalist for Labor ably the Camp David peace between Egypt and lsrael. His biggest mistake may have been allowing the Shah 0f lran t0 fall. B0th construction industry has been whOlly on e grew up in Bayonne, N. J. , a town events t00k place in late 1978 , and some H the management Side. . AS executive VICe so Catholic and so Democratic that historians are already arguing that Carter president Of the Schiavone Construction concentrated on the wrong one. The rise When Raymond James Donovan was a Co. of Secaucus, N. J. , he handled labor boy, "the most honored name in my home, of Khomeini and the lran-lraq war show negotiations for one 0f the biggest bridge- that 0i1 supplies in the gulf can be endan- after the Pope, was FDR. " But Donovan, and-tunnel contractors in the Northeast. now 50 , became a construction executive gered by factors that have nothing t0 d0 Donovan is an affable, down-to-earth man- and a mid-life convert tO conservative Re- with the Arab-Israeli dispute. The argu- ager whose strength is a sure sense Of the publicanism. As Ronald Reagan's New ment that Washington should pressure ls- needs and feelings 0f his employees. "He's Jersey state chairman this year, he helped rael intO concessions on Palestinian auton- not a wheeler-dealer construction.com/ W00 the BCEC (blue-collar, ethnic Cath0- omy t0 placate the Arab 0 ⅱ producers now pany executive," says one associate. lic) vote. He also proved to be one 0f Rea- rings h0 Ⅱ OW. Reagan's team must find a Bobby Ewing, not J. R. ' gan's best fund raisers (singlehandedly way t0 stabilize the Middle East that goes Donovan also happens t0 be far beyond narrow Arab-lsraeli accords. bringing in $ 68 , 開 0 ) and a committed conservative—a an able amateur advance Stationing U. S. forces in the region may supporter 0f the proposed prove tO be a better answer than relying man. Donovan organized "subminimum for teen- Reagan' s Labor Day kick- 0 れ surrogates like the Shah or leaving a agers, and a crltic Of the OC- 0 寵 rally in Jersey City, and power vacuum on the SOViet doorstep. cupational Safety and Health ・ Rediscovering Latin America. If the arranged the rally's media- Administration. One Of his Reagan team is tO impress friends and foes first tasks will be to find a new abroad, the key regions it must protect are head for OSHA and set new the Persian Gulf and Latin America—the priorities for the embattled gulfbecauseofthe energy lifeline and Latin agency. He must 引 SO decide . America because it iS closest tO home and what tO dO about labor's costly program easiest t0 defend. If Washington cannot tO assist workers whO lose theirjobs because prevent the spread 0f Soviet-backed mis- Of competition from imports and take a Chief on Latin Amencan SOil, governments hard 100k at the department's manifold em- around the world will draw appropnate ployment-training programs. Clashes with conclusions. organized labor seem inevitable—and Reagan's advisers dO not pretend tO have Donovan won't have much time for hiS all the answers to these problems. They own on-the-job training. understand that power remains the vital backing for diplomacy, but they admit they TOM MORGANTHAU with SUSAN AGREST in New don't yet know hOW tO respond tO the as- Jersey and HOWARD FINEMAN in Washington pirations Of people in developing countnes, A Whist1e B10wer who will form 85 per cent of the world's population by the end 0f the century. ln ls Acquitted Latin America, for example, Reagan can- not ignore human rights and arm friendly Last May an all-whitejury acquitted four dictators without courting disaster. The white Dade County, 日 a. , policemen 0f mix between power and principle is a tough charges that they had beaten t0 death Ar- call. Carter may have erred in overempha- thur McDuff1e, a black insurance executive. sizing human rights, but Reagan's people New Jersey Newsphotos Miami's black neighborhoods exploded in are aware Of the dangers in shifting t00 DO 〃 0 広 ' ″ $ お 0 みの Ewing, れ工 ' nots, and Justice Department lawyers far the other way. quickly filed charges that McDuffe's civil genic meeting in the shadow 0f the Statue Despite all the problems he faces, Reagan rights had been violated. Astonishingly, Of Liberty between Reagan and Stanislaw will take omce with a stronger military, they didn't try the four acquitted cops but Walesa, whose son Lech is the leader of economic and political base than any Of the prosecution's star witness at the murder the POliSh workers' movement.Donovan'S his allies or adversaries abroad. The United trial, policeman Charles R. Veverka. Last efforts impressed the candidate—and last States can no longer dominate world affairs, week a jury in San Antonio acquitted Ve- week Reagan named Ray Donovan t0 be but it still has enough strength t0 be pre- verka—tnggermg scattered rock throwing emin•ent. And Reagan probably will have his Secretary of Labor. in Miami's black neighborhoods. The nomination actually had been Don- time tO get his foreign-policy house in or- Why did Justice try Veverka? Federal ovan's since the day after "Thanksyving, der, ifonly because the Kremlin's problems lawyers explained that they had their best when Reagan secretly called t0 0 飛 r him are larger than his. With 450 , 80 men tied case against Veverka because he admitted thejob. "I have to tell someone, ” Donovan down on the border with China, another at the murder trial that he had falsified confided tO a friend. "Better start praying 120 , 000 troops in or near Afghanistan and offlicialreports t0 make it appear McDuffe more than 3 開 , 08 poised on the P01ish for me. ” The plea was heartfelt: Donovan had been hurt in an accident. Thejury fore- has never held government omce, and the frontier, the Soviets already are stretched man said Veverka was acquitted precisely announcement Ofhis appointment left Rea- thin. Their economy is stagnant, .and the because he did confess tO the cover-up and gan's few allies in organized labor standing aging, ailing Brezhnevleadership has failed, because he agreed tO testify against the Oth- flat footed. "While we supported another SO far, tO agree on the political successron. er policemen. Assistant U. S. Attorney Bri- candidate," said Teamsters union president ln short, the Soviets are likely t0 be 10S - an McDonaId said the investigation 0f the Frank Fitzsimmons, are well aware ing their stomach for further adventurism Other four Miami cops would continue— ofMr. Donovan's distinguished record and abroad just when Reagan takes Offce with and Veverka said he would cooperate if a mandate for American resurgence. If the his background in labor. '' called again as a prosecution witness. ln fact, Donovan's labor background is world is lucky, that combination may ⅲ - Meantime, a H011YW00d producer was said timately lead tO less international tension, slender at best—a few unionized summer t0 be planning a movie on Veverka's li た . jobs—and his distinguished record in the rather than more. NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 , 1981 イ T 、 0

LATIN AMER ℃ A THE AVENGING ANGELS Murry Sill—Miami Herald RiO 彙 i れ 9 at Archbishop Romero's funeral claimed 3 1 lives: Peace, justice—and people—were perishable commodities Right-wing forces are especially edgy about the situation in Nica- By Beth Nissen ragua. "L0ts 0f people worried that a leftist Nicaragua would fifth-grade history teacher at an elementary school in export revolution throughout the region," said one U. S. diplomat EI Salvador recently asked students to name the country's in Central America, 、、 but few foresaw hOW much a leftist Nicaragua leaders. Fourteen children answered, 、、 The army. '' Four would improve the market for right-wing reaction here. ' Rightists thought U. S. President Jimmy Carter was their Head of State. also have been greatly emboldened by Ronald Reagan's landslide And the remainder of the class of 28 left the question blank. election victory in the United States. The conservative forces 、 I gave them all extra credit, perceive the President-elect as an ideological ally and likely pro- said the teacher. "There isn't a right answer anymore. tector, although their enthusiasm anything but absolute. 、、 He's EI SaIvador may be the best example of a country without untrustworthy, like all gringos, but at least he hates Communists a clear leader, but all across Central America, there is an ongoing as much as we dO," said one right-wing activist in the reg10n. struggle over wh0 is—and wh0 should be—in charge. Sh00t- "He'd send in the Marines before he'd let Fidel Castro in the outS between leftist revolutionanes and right-wing backyard of the United States. '' —always commonplace—have become epidemic. Leftist leaders disappear from the streets in Guatemala. Nicaragua's business n EI Salvador, right-wingers control significant segments of community has been shocked by the violent death Of a prominent the nation's security forces and their agents have been on private-sector leader. And even in COSta Rica, which has remained a wild and unchecked binge 0f terror. Paramilitary groups relatively calm by regional standards, violence is becoming a prob- and death squads are widely blamed for much of the political に m. 、、 The right and the left, the East and the West, have all violence that has taken nearly 10 , 000 lives during the past year. discovered that the area is t00 strategically important not tO 、、 We know from history that the only way to control the left control," said one U. S. ambassador. Although most of Central is tO destroy them," said one self-described 、、 avengmg angel" America IS resource poor, its proximity tO the United States has of the right. 、、 We will tear out the Communist weeds whenever obvious tactical advantages—and disadvantages. 、、 The great worry they grow back, however many times. 、 is that Communist forces will take control Of Nicaragua, then Much ofthe violence has been aimed at the church. Last March, 日 SaIvador, then Guatemala and then drive up toward the soft Archbishop Oscar ArnuIfo Romero was assassinated by a gunman underbelly of Kansas,' says U. S. Ambassador to 日 Salvador 」 ust after delivering a sermon on 」 ustice and peace—certainly Robert White. the most perishable commodities in El Salvador's overheated social lnevitably, lightning on the left brings thunder on the right, climate. 、、 The death 0f Bishop Romero is a symbol of the tragedy and fear Of Communist expansion has led tO what one Salvadoran our nation is living through," said another priest. 、 lt is a tragedy analyst describes as a ViOlent 、、 resurgence against insurgence. of death and b od. " Near the end of the year, there were more 40 NEWSWEEK/JANUARY 5 、い ) 新