P 側催加肱 2 んお 5 加面豆れ况た e イルロ 425 "The per capita income of the average Latin American is 9 percent lower today than it was in 1980. This is average. ln some countries the standard of living has slipped back to where it was 20 years ago. The picture is not totally bleak. Success against poverty is possible. Some Asian countries have done well in the 1980S , for example. ThaiIand has reported a 50 percent decrease in its poverty rate since 1960. The RepubIic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore have a11 experienced rapid industrialization and a rising standard of living. The Appropriateness of the Traditional Model HOW 叩 propriate is the traditional economic growth model for these countries? Does it point the way out Of poverty? Scale. One of the first indicators that traditional models may be in 叩 propriate derives from the ecological effects Of the proposed global scale of economic activity necessary to eradicate poverty if the model 0f development followed by the industrialized nations of Asia, Europe, and Africa were adopted by the rest 0f the world. As Jim MacNeiII, the former director of the World Commission on Environment and Development, has stated, "lf current forms of devel- opment were employed, a five- tO ten-fold increase in economic activity would be required over the next fifty years tO meet the needs and aspirations of a population twice the size of today's 6.0 billion, as well as tO begin tO reduce mass poverty. ' Whether increases of this mag- nitude could be accomplished while still respecting the atmospheric and ecological systems on which all economic activity ultimately depends is not at all obvious. lncreased energy consumption tO support new industry would add greenhouse gases. lncreased refrigeration would add more Of the gases depleting the stratospheric ozone level. The industrialized nations have freely used the very large capacity of the atmosphere to absorb these gases. Little absorptive capacity is left. MOSt observers seem tO believe that in order tO meet the challenge, we need tO take an activist stance by controlling population, severely reducing emissions Of these gases in the industrialized world, and discovering new forms 0f development that are sustainable. Forms Of Development. Economics can assist in the process Of characterizing hOW the forms should differ. Appr 叩 riate devel 叩 ment should capitalize on local strengths and stay away from weaknesses; it should be sensitive tO factor prices. Many, if not most, Of the developing nations, are labor-surplus economies. lt fOllOWS that their strategy for development, at least in the beginning stages, should be labor-intensive. Labor-intensive processes serve the tWin purposes Of capitalizing on an abundant resource and providing a source Of income tO large numbers Of people. 23 AIthough the forms Of development in the industrialized nations are increasingly going tO rely on a highly skilled labor force, that is inappropriate for countries where the educa- tional systems may not currently be able tO supply sufficient numbers Of skilled workers t0 fill 23Contrast this with c 叩 ital-i ntensive processes, which use much less labor and distribute more Of the returns tO the owners 0f c 叩 ital, wh0 are typically we ル 0
T H E S N 0 ′ L を 0 p A R D with a hoopoe, oddly tame. Such tameness must be a good omen, Of which we are need, for the hoopoe walks around before my feet on the wet grass under the oaks as if waiting to conduct us farther. The path enters a narrowing ravine that climbs to a high cleft between boulders, and the cleft is reached at the strike of the rising sun, which fills this portal with a blinding light. I emerge in a new world and stare about me. A labyrinth of valley mounts tO 、 vard the snows, for the Himalaya is as convoluted as a brain. Churen HimaI 100mS in high mist, then vanishes. A pheasant hen and then three more sail down off a lichened rock face with sweet chortlings; the crimson cock stays hidden. Far below, over dark gorges where no sun has reached, a griffon circles in the silence. The forest on this ridge is oak and maple, and a mist Of yellow leaves softens the ravrne sides all around: on a golden Wind comes a riCh humus smell Of autumn. Now GS comes, and we climb quickly to 12 , 000 feet. The paths around these mountainsides are narro 、 there iS no r001 Ⅱ for a misstep, and at this altitude, one is quickly out of breath. Gradually I have learned to walk more lightly, legs 100Se , al- most gliding, and this helps a 10t in times of vertigo. Some of the cliffside trail is less than t 、 MO feet wide—l measure it—and skirts sheer preclpice; nor is the rest very much better, for these mountainsides Of shining grass are SO preclpitous, SO devoid Of trees or even shrubs, that a stumbler might tumble and roll thousands 0f feet, then drop into the dark where the sun ends, for want of anything to catch hold of. My sense of dread is worsened by last night's lingering dreams. dream ... wherein phenomena and mind were seen as one was a teacher: did you not SO understand it? " I have not quite apprehended this idea—that man's world, man's dreams are both dream-states—but Milarepa has been of help in other ways. Returning t0 his village after many years ()e was born about fifty miles north of Kathmandu, on the Tibetan side of the present-day frontier), MiIa discovers the decayed corpse of his mother, no more than a mound 0f dirt and rags in her fallen hut; shaken by grief and horror, he remembers the instructlon of his guru, the Lama Marpa, to embrace all that he most fears
204 劭叩 r 月召わ市″秀 Fo 〃わ″ gone tO a few; now wealthy, individuals and corporations rather than tO the government t0 be used for the alleviation of poverty or other worthy social objectives. Because forest concessions are typically awarded for limited terms„the ℃ oncession hOld- ers have little incentive tO replant, tO exercise care in theirlogging_ procedures, or even tO 、 conserve younger trees until they reach the efficient harvest age. The future value of the for- est will not be theirs tocaptureIThe resulting logging practices destroy a multiple of the nub- mer Of trees represented by the high-value species because of the destruction of surrounding species by the construction Of access roads, the felling and dragging Of the trees, and the elim- ination Of the protective canopy. Although sustainable forestry would be possible for many of these nations, concession agreements such as these make it unlikely. 7 The list of losers from inefficient forestry practices frequently includes indigenous peo- ples wh0 have lived in and derived their livelihood from these forests for a very long time. As the loggers and squatters push deeper and deeper into forests, the indigenous pe 叩厄, who lack the power to stem the tide, are forced to relocate farther and farther away from their tra- ditional lands. Perverse lncentives for N 黼 0n5 Another source Of deforestation involves external costs that transcend national borders. Because the costs transcend national borders, it is unrealistic tO expect national policy to solve the problem. Some international action would normally be necessary. Bi0diversity. Because of species extinction, the diversity of the forms of life that inhabit the planet is diminishing at an unprecedented rate. The extinction Of species is an irreversible 8Norman Meyers, The 怦 / 襯砿彑 So ″尾 2. ・叩た s なイ 0 ″ル尾 (New York: W. w. Norton, 1984 ) : 50. regenerate the types Of trees included in the harvest. tO penetrate, SO changes the growing conditions and the nutrient levels of the soil that even replanting is unlikely to yet learned hOW tO regenerate the species in a harvested area. Destroying the thick can 叩 y, thereby allowing the light 7Currently, foresters believe that the sustainable yield for closed tropical rain forests is zero, because they have not carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas, deforestation eliminates a potentially significant 90b Warming. Deforestation also contributes to global warming. Because trees absorb by deforestation's deleterious effect on habitats. derived from substances found in tropical plants. Future discoveries, however, are threatened 0f some entirely new foods. ApproximateIy one quarter of all prescription drugs have been increase disease resistance Of cash crops such as C()ffee and and they have been the source useful source of donor genes. Tropical forests have already contributed genetic material to enhanced resistance tO disease or pests. But the gene P001 must be diverse if it is to serve as a genes from one species intO another, creating species With new characteristics such as this biodiversity represents. MOdern techniques now make it possible to transplant desirable cisely the moment in history when we would be most able to take advantage of the gene P001 One Of the tragic ironies of the situation is that these extinctions are occurring at pre- region is unmatched anywhere else on the planet. the tropical biome. "8 The quantity of bird, fish, plant, and insect life that is unique to that ticular, Amazonia has been characterized by Norman Myers as the "single richest region of source Of species extinction, because it destroys the most biologically active habitats. ln par- process. Deforestation, particularly the destruction Of the tropical rain forests, is a major
drink and dance and make love to lndian wenches. This debauched behavior, which peaked some years later at the Merry Mount Mayp01e affair, eventually had t0 be suppressed by a punitive raid under C aptain Standish ⅲ order t0 re-establish the origl- nal discipline 0f the Pilgrims. The Merry Mount affair started, Bradford tells us, when Thomas Morton, a well educated but unscrupulous ad- venturer, arrived and tOOk control Of a nearby plantation at Mount Wallarton. The pleasure-loving Morton immediately changed the name of the location tO Merry Mount and began t0 plan some fun. Bradford claimed that 'after this they all fell to a great licientious- ness, and om then on led a most dissolute life'. Before long, Morton had become 'lord 0f misrule, and maintained ( it were) a school 0f sin. They set up a may-pole with much drinking, dancing and consorting with the lndian women'. Then tO make matters worse the pleasure seekers were forced tO trade their guns, powder and shOt ⅲ return for food om the lndians ⅲ order t0 maintain their abandoned lifestyle. At this point the PiIgrims lost patience not only was this pleasure camp undermining their puritan values but with arms and ammunition the lndians would become more 0f a threat. Having tried ⅲ vain t0 persuade MO れ on tO reform his ways, the Pilgrims eventually decided t0 storm the pleasure camp and take Morton and his revellers by force. Sending Captain Standish and a raiding party fully armed into the camp, the PiIgrims caught Morton and his men unawares, disarmed them, tied them up and dispatched MO れ on back tO England on the next ship. Although it was a victow for the way 0f life advocated by the PiIgrims it was not without some price. Once back in England, Morton published a bOOk attacking the Pilgrims for their dictatorial methods. By the end Of the first decade, however, Pilgrim publications like Mo ' S e 厄 0 れ and Winslow's G00d News 工川 New E れ 0 厄れ d had mspired Other religious groups t0 cross the Atlantic and t0 share in the re source s Of the New World. BY 1630 large shiploads 0f puritans under the leadership of Governor J0hn Winthrop established other settle- ments ⅲ the Massachusetts Bay area which came under the auspices Of the powerful Massachusetts Bay Company. Before long the different settlements were forced tO create a Feder- ation ⅲ order tO work together and tO defeat the common lndian enemy by then, with Squanto and Samoset long dead, the lndians opposed such massive numbers invading their country. Then ⅲ 1643 the New EngIand Confederation was created out 0f the fO colonies Of Massachusetts Bay, Connecticut, New Haven and PIymouth basically for defence against lndians, French and Dutch rivals ⅲ New EngIand. TWe New England Confederation was the first union 0f independent colonies and was a model for the later Articles 0f Con- federation, which led ⅲ turn to the Union of the United States. lndeed Bradford said himself was t0 the admiration 0f many, and allmost wonder Of the world; that Of SO small beginnings SO great 'SO the light here kindled hath shone tO many . things should insue 0 nce the settlement ん ad become established the Pilgrims e 尾 able build s リ bs 厩 I houses これ P mo 砒ん 130
T H E S N OV ′ L E 0 PA R D 53 might be cited, such as the Aztec concept Of existence as a dream state, or the great awe of wind and sky that the Ojibwa Of our northern prairies share with the vanished Aryans Of the 19 Asian steppes. Tibetan oracle-priests and Siberian shamans practice dream- travel, telepathy, mystical heat, speed-running, death predic- tion, and metempsychosis, all Of which are known tO New WorId shamans: the Algonkian medicine man who travels as a bird to the spirit world, the jaguar-shamans of the Amazon would be impressed but not surprised by the powers attributed t0 yogis and れ 4 〃 0 ゆ as. The energy or essence or breath of be- ing that is called 々れ 4 by Hindu yogins and chi by the Chinese iS kno 、 as 0 e れ da tO the Cree. 20 Such concepts as karma and circular time are taken for granted by almost all native 、 American traditions; time as space and death as becomrng are implicit in the earth view 0f the Hopi, who avoid all linear con- structions, knowing as well as any Buddhist that Everything is Right Here Now. As in the great religions of the East, the na- tive American makes small distinction between religious activ- ity and the acts 0f every day: the religious ceremony is life itself. Like the Atman of the Vedas, like the Buddhist Mind, like Tao, the Great Spirit of the American lndian is everywhere and in all things, unchanging. Even the Australian aborigines— considered tO be the most anclent race on earth—distinguish between linear time and a 。。 Great Time" Of dreams, myths, and heroes, in which all is present in this moment. lt stirs me that this primordial intuition has been perpetuated by VOice and act across countless horizons and for centunes on end, illuminat- ing the dream-life 0f primitives, the early lnd0-European CIVI- lizations Of the Sumerlans and Hittites, the ancient Greeks and the Egyptians, guarded by hidden cults in the Dark Ages, emerg- lng in Christian, Hasidic, and Muslim mysticism (Sufism) as well as in all the splendorous religions 0f the East. And it is a pro- found consolation, perhaps the only one, to this haunted animal that wastes most of a long and ghostly life wandering the future and the past on its hind legs, looking for meanings, only to see in the eyes Of others of its kind that it must die.
eB た P 豆襯 0 施 I FIGURE 1.1 The Limits-to-Growth Standard Run Scenario 1 ー ust 回 Output い Resources Population Food 1900 2000 2100 The "standard" world modelrun assumes no major change in the physical, economic, 0 「 social relationships that have governed the development of the world system. AII variables plotted here fOIIOW historical values from 1900 to 1970. Food, industrial output, and population grow expo- nentially until the rapidly diminishing resource base forces a slowdown in industrial growth. Because Of natural delays in the system, bOth population and pollution continue to increase fO 「 some time after the peak of industrialization. Population growth is finally halted by a rise in the death rate due tO decreased food and medical services. Source: DoneIIa Meadows et al., Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future (Post Mills, VT: Chelsea Green, 1992 ) , p. 133. Pollution based on this new, higher level of resources. ln this alternative vision the collapse still occurs, but this time it is caused by excessive pollution generated by the increased pace of industrial- ization permitted by the greater availability Of resources. The authors then suggest that if the depletable resource and pollution problems were somehow jointly solved, population would grow unabated and the availability 0f f00d would become the binding constraint. ln this model the removal Of one limit merely causes the system tO bump subsequently into another one, usually With more dire consequences. As its third and final conclusion, the study suggests that overshoot and coll 叩 se can be avoided only by an immediate limit on population and pollution as well as a cessation of economic growth. The portrait painted shows only tWO possible outcomes: the termination Of growth by self-restraint and conscious policy—an approach that avoids the collapse—
G んわ Scarcitu 175 ・ At a time when enough grain is being produced to provide everyone in the world with twice the daily minimum caloric requirements, global hunger is at an all-time high. Though some may quarrel with the specific numbers recognition that a substantial propor- tion Of the world's population is currently malnourished seems universal. Why has this situation arisen? Cereal grain, the world's chief supply of food, is a renew- able private-property resource that, managed effectively, could be sustained as long as we receive energy from the sun. Are current agricultural practices sustainable? Are they efficient? Because land iS typically not a common-property resource, farmers have an incentive t0 invest in irrigation and Other means Of increasing yield, because they can 叩 propriate the additional revenues generated. On the surface, a flaw in the market process is not apparent. We must dig deeper tO uncover the sources Of the problem. ln this ch 叩 ter we shall explore the validity of three common hypotheses used to explain widespread malnourishment: ( 1 ) a persistent global scarcity of food, ( 2 ) a maldistribution of that food both among nations and within nations, and ( 3 ) temporary shortages caused by weather or Other natural causes. These hypotheses are not mutually exclusive; they could all be valid sources of a portion of the problem. As we shall see later in the chapter, it is impor- tant t0 distinguish among these sources and assess their relative importance, because each implies a different policy approach. ◆ GLOBAL SCARCITY A number Of commentators see the problem as an absolute global scarcity—a case of too many pe 叩 le chasing t00 little f00d.2 Garrett Hardin, a human ecologist, has suggested the situation is SO desperate that our conventional ethics, which involve sharing the available resources, are not only insufficient, they are counterproductive. He argues that we must replace these dated notions Of sharing wealth with more-stern "lifeboat ethics. "3 The allegory he invokes involves a lifeboat adrift in the sea that can safely hold 50 or, at most, 60 persons. Hundreds of other persons are swimming about, clamoring to get into the lifeboat, their only chance for survival. Hardin suggests that if passengers in the boat were to follow conventional ethics and allow swimmers into the boat, it would eventually sink, taking everyone tO the bottom 0f the sea. ln contrast, he argues, lifeboat ethics would suggest a bet- ter resolution Of the dilemma; the 50 or 60 should row away, leaving the others to certain death, but saving those fortunate enough to gain entry to the lifeboat. The implication is that fOOd sharing is counterproductive. lt encourages more population growth and ultimately would cause inevitable and even more serious shortages in the future. The existence of a global scarcity of food is the premise that underlies this view; when famine is inevitable, sharing is counterproductive. ln the absence 0f global scarcity (). e. , when the lifeboat has a large enough c 叩 acity for all), a worldwide famine can be avoided by a sharing of resources. HOW accurate iS the premise Of glObal scarcity? 2See, for example, Lester R. Brown, 加 the 〃リ襯れ / 催日 New York: W. W. Norton, 1974 ) ; and William Paddock and Paul Paddock, Fa 襯加←ー 79 / (Boston, Ⅳ : Little, B rown, 1967 ). 3Garrett Hardin, "Living on a Lifeboat," Bioscience 24 (Oct0ber 1974 ) : 561 ー 68.
せいりよく 671 せかい ある have (a great deal (f) influence ((over, with) ; carry weight ((with, among) / 勢力のあ る powerful ; influential / 勢力のない power- less ; uninfluential / 勢力の均衡 the balance of power / 勢力を振るう ( 文》 wield power [in- fluence] / 勢力争い 2 power struggle ; a strug- gle [contest] for power / 勢力範囲を広げる extend [expand] one's sphere Of influence ; widen [( 文》 enlarge] the scope 0f 0 ' s influ- ence / 国会内の新勢力分野 the new power alignments in the House. [ 文例 : せいりよく 2 精力 energy : vigor ; vitality ; 《ロ 語》 go ; く↑生的な > 07 泥 ' s sexual capacity [pow- ers] ; ( 文 ) potency ; virility ー精力的な ener- getic ; vigorous ; 《ロ語》 full of go / 精力を傾 注する put [throw] all 0 ' s energies (into) / 精力を使い果たす runout ofsteam / 精力を発 散する let [work] 0 幵 steam [one's energy] / 精 カ家 an energetic man ; 《ロ語》 a bundle 0f energy ; ( ロ語》 a ball of fire / 精力絶倫の人 ( 文 ) a man 0f unbounded [immense] virility [potency] ・は例 せいるい声涙一声涙ともに下る speak with tears in 07 ' s eyes [rolling down one's cheeks]. せいれし、 1 政・令 2 government ordinance ; a cabinet order ー政令審査委員会 the Ordi- nance Review committee. せいれい 2 聖霊リスト教』 the Holy Ghost [Spirit] ー聖霊降臨 the Descent 0f the HoIy Spirit ()n the Apostles) / 聖霊降臨日 Whit- sunday. せいれい 3 精励 hard work ; ( ( 文》 diligence ; ( ( 文 ) industry 1 精励恪勤である work hard ; 《文 ) be diligent ; be industrious ; ( 文 ) be assiduous ((in 0 ' s work); apply 0 se げ ( ( to one's duties)). せいれい 4 精霊く霊魂〉 the spirit ; the soul ; the ghost ; く精〉 a spirit ; 2 sprite ; ( 文 ) a ge- nius ( 爆・ genii). せいれき西暦 the Christian Era ; Anno Dom- ini ( 略 : A. D. , (D) 西暦 79 年にⅲ A. D. 79 ; in 79 A. D. ☆ A. D. を付けるのは西暦紀 元の初期の年号のみ . 1066 年を A. D. 1066 と はしない . せいれつ整列ー整列する stand ina row ; line [be lined] up ; form (a line) / 3 列に整列する be drawn up ⅲ three lines / 整列させる dress ((the men). せいれん精錬ー精錬する refine ((metals 》 ; smelt (copper)) ; reduce (ores) / 精錬所 a 代 - finery ; 2 smelting works. せいれんけつばく清廉潔白 absolute honesty ; ( ( 文 ) unsullied integrity ー清廉潔白な honest ; 《文》 upright / 清廉潔白の士 a man who is as straight as a die ; ( 文》 an upright man ; 《文》 a せいろ蒸籠 a steaming basket ; a basket steamer. せいろん正論 a sound [fair] argument. は例 セイロン CeyIon スリランカーセイロンの Ceylon ; Ceylonese / セイロン語 Sinhalese / セイロン紅茶 Ceylontea / セイロン人 a Cey- lonese ( 単複同形》 . セーター 2 sweater : ( 英 ) 2 jersey ; a pullover. セーフ ( 野球』 safe 第一塁で危うくセーフ be narrowly safe on first (base). セーフティーバント〔野球』 a safety bunt. セーラーふくセーラー服 a sailor [middy] blouse ; く上下〉 a middy blouse and skirt. セールスマン a 《 book ) ) salesman; a saleswoman; くタド交ー阪売員 > a traveling salesman ()n cosmet- ics)) : a commercial traveler ; く戸男リ訪問の > 2 doorstep salesman ー自動車のセーノレスマン 2 car salesman. せおいなげ背負い投げ a shoulder throw ; throwing sb over one's shoulder. せおう背負う carry sth on one's back : shoul- der 朝 heavy burden) ; be burdened with ((an important duty) ; be saddled with ()a debt) ーこの国の将来を背負う若人たち young men whO carry the future Of this country on their shoulders. せおおい背覆いく椅子の〉 an antimacassar ; ( 米 ) a tidy. せおよぎ背泳ぎ the backstroke ー背泳ぎをす る swim the backstroke ; swim on one's back / 背泳ぎの選手 a backstroke swimmer. せかい世界 the world ; く地球〉 the earth ; ( ( 文》 the globe ; く宇宙〉 the universe ; く世間〉 the world ; く特ー殊の社会〉 a world; (movie) circles ; く領域 > ( 文 ) a realm ー子供の世界 the world 0f children / 想像の世界 the world of (the) imagination / 理想の世界 an ideal world / 世 界的 [ の ] world ; worldwide ; international ; ( 文 ) ) global ; universal / 世界的に有名な world- famous ; ( ( 文 ) 0f worldwide [ 40b 引 ] fame / 世 界の各地から from all over [all parts of] the world / 世界の果てまでも [ すみずみまで ] to the ends of [the four corners 0f] the earth / 世界を一周する go [take a trip] around [( 英》 round] the world ; make 2 round-the-world trip ; ( 文 ) circle the globe / 世界中に [ の ] all over [in all, throughout] the world ; (all) the world over / 世界一である be the best [great- est] in the world ; lead the world ((in) / 世界 一周旅行 a round-the-world trip ; ()o 0 可 a world cruise ( 客船による ) / 世界観 an outlook on い view Of] the world ; a world view [out- look] ; ( ( ドイツ語》 a 嶬々Z比れ schauung / 世界記 録 (establish, make) a world record ((in) / 世 界銀行 the 、 Vorld Bank ; the lnternational man Of integrity. いだろう . A theory of that so 社 will not stand up [ ho 旧 water]. せいりやくそれは一時の政略から 出た処置である . lt is a measure dictated by political expediency. せいりよう 2 今の世の中にあのよう な人がいるとは一服の清涼剤だ . lt is refreshing tO meet a man like him these days. せいりよぐ彼は省内でなかなか 勢力がある . He wields a lot 0f power [influence] in the Minis- try. / 台風は勢力を増してきてい る . The typhoon is increasing in strength ・ / 台風は勢力が衰え て温帯低気圧に変わった . The typhoon petered out [subsided] intO an extratropical cyclone. せいりよぐ年をとると精力が衰え る . One's energy declines with age. / 彼は精力家だ . He has plen- ty Of go ⅲ him.l He is a (real) bundle of energy ・ せいろん君のは確かに正論だ . I
G / 記 Po れな 301 each gas would depend upon its per unit contribution tO the global warming problem; gases posing a larger per unit risk would bear higher tax rates. Taxes on fossil fuels are not a radical concept. 20 Gasoline taxes have routinely been levied for years. Though gasoline taxes represent an input tO combustion rather than an emlsslons rate, the administrative ease with which they can be implemented and the close relationship between the composition Of the fuel and the composition of the emissions makes such taxes a popular candidate for use as one component in a package Of corrective measures tO reduce global warming. Because gasoline taxes have already been implemented by nations for their own purposes, examining the degree tO which these taxes deviate from the full-cost principle provides some indication Of the complexity Of the international negotiations tO reform gasoline taxes SO that they would conform t0 the principle. TO the extent that the current system Of taxes approxi- mates the ideal, conditions would appear favorable to negotiating a transition. ln fact, the gasoline taxes now ln use around the world are not efficient. Efficient carbon taxes would reflect the damage caused by emissions, thereby fostering a reduction in emlSSions. ln contrast, current gasoline tax rates are commonly determined by the revenue needed tO build more roads; added roadway c 叩 acity ultimately translates intO more emissions, not fewer. Because they are driven by the need tO finance capacity expansion rather than tO account for the environmental effects Of combustion, gasoline taxes are cur- rently not efficient. Although 叩 plying the full-cost principle for global warming also requires that the tax rates be uniformly applied, that condition is a far cry from actual experience. According tO the lnter- national Energy Agency, the total U. S. tax rate on gasoline was around $ 0.38 in 1999. European tax rates were $ 2.48 per gallon in Germany, $ 3.54 in Britain, $ 2.87 in France, and $ 2.60 in ltaly. 21 When the tax rates differ by a factor of 5 or more, the allocation of control responsibility for reducing gasoline-related emissions does not fulfill the uniformity requirement. The transition tO a more sustainable economic system in atmospheric terms will depend upon the development Of new technologies and upon much greater levels Of energy efficiency than are currently being achieved. Those transitions will not occur unless the prevailing eco- nomic incentives support and encourage them. Once the greenhouse gas and ozone-depletion taxes were in effect, the incentives would be changed: Greater energy efficiency and the devel- opment Of new technologies would become top-priority objectives. Because environmental taxes would generate revenue, a common glObal fund could be established tO receive and dispense that revenue. Controlled by representatives Of the signa- tory nations, this fund could conceivably dispense monies for prorcts as diverse as reforesta- tion or the promotion Of solar-powered projects tO provide income and subsistence tO poor areas 0f the world. A fund financed by environmental taxes would help t0 reduce the twin causes Of environmental problems: distorted market signals and poverty. 22 20T. sterner et al., "Tax policy, Carbon Emissions and the G10b Environment,"Joumal 砿 Tra 〃 0 ECO れ 0 襯イ Po ″ c, 26 , NO. 2 ( 1992 ) : 109 ー 19. 21www.iea.org/files/glance.htm 22By substituting environmental taxes for more traditional taxes, it would also be possible tO eliminate the inefficien- cies associated with the traditional taxes. some estimates suggest that using carbon taxes tO replace more distortion- producing revenue sources could reduce the cost Of controlling greenhouse gases substantially. See I. ParrY' R. C. Williams and L. H. Goulder. "When Can Carbon Abatement P01icies lncrease Welfare? The Fundamental R01e 0f Dis- torted Factor Markets,"Joumal 砿 Env 0 れ襯夜 2 / ECO れ 0 襯沁れ dM ロれ叩 2 襯 e 37 ( 1 ) ( 1999 ) : 52-84.
夜記物れな 299 Of the problem. 17 Because many of those countries are already producing too little food (see Chapter 10 ) , global warming would only exacerbate the problem. The implication of this analysis—that nations have different stakes in the international search for solutions to global warming—goes well beyond their differential ability to adapt. Regions with a characteristically cold climate, such as large portions of the former Soviet Union, may actually benefit from this warming trend, whereas others that are naturally somewhat arid may see marginal agriculturalland become unproductive desert, triggering a diminished capacity tO raise f00d. These differences (and the rather divergent senses of urgency they promote) could prove quite divisive in the search for cooperative solutions tO the global warming problem. GlObal warming poses a particularly difficult challenge for our economic and political institutions. The stratosphere is a public good. lts scarcity is not reflected in rising prices; it is not automatically rationed only tO the highest valued uses. The damage caused by greenhouse pollutants is an externality in bOth space and time. Emitters impose costs not only on resi- dents Of Other countries, but on subsequent generations as well. Free-rider problems can be expected tO undermine unilateral national attempts tO respond. Market allocations can cer- tainly be expected tO violate the efficiency criterion and may well violate the sustainability cri- terion as well (see Example 15.5 ). What can be done? Four strategies have been considered: ( 1 ) climate engineering, ( 2 ) ad 叩 tation, ( 3 ) mitigation, and ( 4 ) prevention. C ″襯 e 例グれ e 催加 0 envisions taking actions such as shooting particulate matter intO the atmosphere in order tO provide compensating cooling. da, 〃″ 0 れ strategies would allow us tO function effectively in warmer temperatures. M ″われ would attempt t0 moderate the temperature rise by using strategies designed tO increase the planetary capacity tO absorb greenhouse gases. P れ″ 0 れ strategies are designed t0 reduce emissions 0f greenhouse gases. Because only the last tWO Of these have received serious attention in public policy arenas, we shall focus on them. The most significant prevention strategy deals with our use of fossil fuel energy. Combus- tion Of fossil fuel energy results in the creation Of carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced either by using less energy or by using alternative energy sources (). g. , wind, photovoltaics, or hydro) that produce no carbon dioxide. Because any serious reduction in carbon dioxide emissions would involve rather dramatic changes in our energy-consumption patterns and a high economic cost, hOW vigorously this strategy is tO be followed is a contro- versial public policy issue. 18 Because trees absorb carbon dioxide, reforestation iS a commonly mentioned mitigation strategy. If the rate Of deforestation were decreased and the rate Of reforestation increased, greater amounts 0f carbon dioxide could be absorbed. What policy approaches are available t0 deal efficiently with the global warming problem? Although glObal warming and ozone depletion impose an environmental cost, currently that 17Cynthia Rosenzweig and Martin L. parry, "P0tentialImpact 0f Climate Change on World F00d SUPPIY," Ⅳル尾 367 (January 1994 ) : 133 ー 38. 18According tO research by William Nordhaus, a 10 t0 20 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions could be achieved at a relatively IOW cost, but the marginal costs oflarger reductions rise very r 叩 idly. See "Greenhouse ECO- nomics: Count Before You Leap," The ECO れ om な日 7 JulY 1990 ) : 20 ー 24.