Innovation : the five disciplines for creating what customers want

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the entire history of the kingdom. 20 lndeed, it was nearly enough rice to cover the surface of the earth. Once the king learned he had been tricked, he had the prince's head cut 0 圧 There are two morals to this story. First, be careful 0f things that compound. Second, never embar- rass the king. The exponential developments described above become particularly powerful when they / 〃 and create something entirely new, such as the lnternet. The lnter et iS the convergence 0f computing 4 〃ノ commu- nicatlons. lt iS growmg and improving exponentially, but even faster than Moore's Law, since it levera es multiple exponential develop- ments. The number Of lnternet) 、目6ミtS an the content on the lnternet are doubling every twelve months. CIearIy, the lnternet is touching some- thing very fundamental tO have created such activity, excltement, and opportumtY ・ These "colliding exponentials"21 are creating a transltl()n ln our econor .y. Fifty years ago most Of the economy was lmprovlng in price performance but relatively slowly, at a few percentage points per year. Products that are primarily characterized by their physical and material attributes—such as tralns, automobiles, houses, stoves, and vacuum cleaners—cannot be improved in price performance as quickly as knowledge-intensive products and services. Other early products, like analog telephones and televisions, could not be improved r 叩 idly because major innovations required completely new standards. But fifty years ago, Moore's Law for computing was charging ahead. If you were in the computer business during the last century you had tO double your performance every eighteen tO twenty-four months just tO survive. MOSt did not. Among the first wave Of computer compa- nies, only IBM has endured. Electronic ControIs Company, Burroughs, DEC, Cray, Honeywell, RCA, Wang, Commodore, and hundreds more are all gone. ln the 1980S , the lnternet became technologically and economically practical, and the "law Of exponential interconnectlons" added another exponential driver tO the exponential power Of Moore's Law. The la , Of exponential interconnections says that in a fully connected network, like the lnternet, the number Of connections between users goes up ex- ponentially as users are added, which helps you gather ideas and build 28 CURtIS R. caRLSON aND WILLIam Ⅵ′ . WILmot

on earlier ones faster. ThiS allOWS exponentials like Moore's Law tO go even faster. Although these early computing and commumcation developments were remarkable and impacted some businesses, they didn't initially impact the bulk 0f the economy. Even into the early 1990S there was considerable discusslon about whether computer and communlcatl()n technology had made 4 写 appreciable impact on office productivity. 22 But as 1 ore Of the economy became knowledge-intensive, that changed. TOday the convergence 0f b0th computing and communications has ad- vanced [ 0 the point where they are touching 1 OSt segments Of the economy. ThiS includes product sales, auctions, publishing, entertam- ment, educatlon, distribution Of goods, manufacturing, and research. There iS no longer any question about the impact Of computers, com- mumcations, and Other rapidly improvmg technologies on our economy. But the impact has just begun. The lnternet is used by less than 20 per- cent Of the world's population. 23Within just a few years, more than tWO billion people from all over the world will use cell phones. 24 And once we have connected the maJority of the people around the world, we will then begin tO connect our computer devices and applications tO autO- matically share data and knowledge. This is referred to as the "age of ubiquitous computing. ' lt will be possible, for example, for both the hospital and the children Of an infirm parent tO monitor the parent S health. 旧、 00t0 。Ⅱ y , there will be 言 of pe 叩 10 and hundreds of bil- lions Of computers wirelessly connected through networks like the lnter- net. These expanding capabilities will, inevitably, create wave after wave Of surpr1Sing new opportunitles. €xpanding lmpact 、 AS we go forward, exponential improvements Will increasingly impact Other areas that are important tO us, such as entertamment, educatlon, and envlronmentally green products. Consider, for example, entertain- ment. Many consumer entertainment products—such as computer games, CDs, cameras, and personal digital assistants (PDAs)—have already become digital. Analog television will be replaced by digital INNOVatION 29

HDTV in 2009 , 25 and soon 5 5 mm movies will evolve into digital C1nema. At this point the transitlon tO an all-digital entertainment ln- frastructure will be complete. The fragmentation and decline 0f major television news media, national newspapers, and mOV1e StudiOS WiII continue. The current hierarchical media industry iS literally being turned upside down as computer interactive games, blogs, websites, and millions of individuals around the world produce new forms of info- entertainment content. There are, for example, more than 24 million lnternet blogs and their numbers are growing exponentially. The increas- lng emergence Of personal commumcation devices and community- supported information services, such as Wikipedia.org and Craigslist.org/ heralds an important new ViSIOn Of the future. Medicine and health servlces will be revolutionized as they fully enter the exponential econor y. Medicine has been traditionally a pro- fession based on an understanding Of anatomy and basic chemistry. Doctors ask how you feel, take your temperature and b100d pressure, obtain X-rays and MRIs, and collect b100d and urine samples. From this limited information they try tO discover the status Of your health. Obviously, compared with those of one hundred years ago, doctors do a superb jOb. But humans are immensely complicated organisms, and the tOOlS doctors use tOday are primitive compared with what iS needed. We require knowledge of the specific signaling and computational processes occurring within our bodies—knowledge that is rapidly being collected. With the decoding of the human genome, medicine has en- tered a rich new era based on the detailed processes that determine hOW our bOdies function. Medicine iS becoming an information technology. Consequently, we are experiencmg a Moore's Law for medicine where, for example, genomic information about humans is doubling every 6 仁 teen months. 26 Personalized medicine Will become a reality as we understand hO , the unique genetic differences ln our bOdies impact our health.We will take only those drugs that are compatible with our physiologies, elimi- nating many 0f the hundred thousand U. S. deaths each year due t0 ad- verse Side effects. 27 ln addition, researchers are now modifying the human genetic code t0 prevent birth defects and other crippling dis- eases. Developments in genomics and biocomputatlon will eventually 50 CURtIS R. caRLSON aND WILLIam W. WILmot